-- 正如预期，加拿大央行“维持利率不变”，将政策利率维持在2.25%，与去年10月以来的水平持平。道明经济部周三指出。 道明在分析加拿大央行今日最新政策的关键影响时指出，随着能源冲击逐渐蔓延至整个经济，通胀数据预计将会上升。但道明也指出，由于近期核心通胀指标一直处于目标区间内，且劳动力市场依然疲软，因此通胀“起点良好”。道明表示，这些因素支撑了通胀的温和基线，也预示着加拿大央行将面临风险。 TD补充道：“从我们的角度来看，前景只是逐步转变。波士顿银行的调查显示企业信心略有回升，但企业前景依然非常不明朗。令人担忧的是能源价格的走势。我们（与加拿大央行一样）预计能源价格将在本季度达到峰值并逐步回落，从而缓解通胀压力，并使加拿大央行能够维持在中性利率区间的下限。当然，前景面临的风险仍然很高，并且取决于中东冲突的走向。”
Related Articles
International
FOMC Holds Rates; Three Officials Oppose Easing Bias as Miran Again Seeks Cut
The Federal Open Market Committee maintained its federal funds rate target at 3.50% to 3.75%, as expected, but four officials dissented, its statement Wednesday afternoon showed.Fed Governor Stephen Miran again sought a 25-basis-point rate. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan supported holding rates steady but "did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time," according to the statement.There were few changes from the previous meeting's statement, keeping the focus on the committee's repeated pledge to adjust policy if risks emerge.Recent comments from Fed officials have highlighted divisions over the direction of the next move, including some suggesting rates may need to rise. Those differences produced dissents at what could be Chair Jerome Powell's final meeting before Kevin Warsh is confirmed to succeed him. Analysts expect Warsh to be more open to rate cuts than Powell.Powell's press conference begins at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Oil & Energy
US Oil Update: Futures Surge as US-Iran Standoff Rattles Markets
Crude oil futures soared in midday trading on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session, as the standoff between the US and Iran raised concerns over further supply disruptions in the Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped 7.05% to $107.02 per barrel, while Brent futures surged 7.33% to $119.41/bbl.US crude stockpiles dropped by 6.2 million barrels to 459.5 mmbbls in the week ended April 24, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday, amid signs of tightening supplies.Crude inventories are now about 1% above the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said.Saxo Bank strategists said crude surged to record highs during this war-driven cycle, as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz prolongs a disruption that is tightening global energy markets.President Trump is reportedly considering extending the US naval blockade of Iranian ports as it carries less of a risk for Washington than resuming hostilities or walking away from the Middle East conflict, which has roiled global energy markets.Trump threatened Iran on Wednesday, saying the country "better get smart soon". "Iran can't get their act together. They don't know how to sign a non-nuclear deal. They better get smart soon!" Trump said in a post on Truth Social.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that although Trump said Iran had asked for the blockade to be lifted during negotiations, reports suggest the US is preparing for a prolonged blockade of Iranian ports.On the supply front, the US President has asked US energy firms about ways to mitigate the impact of a potentially months-long blockade of Iranian ports, raising concerns that disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies could be prolonged.The US naval blockade appears to be putting pressure on Iran, amid reports that the country is running out of crude storage space, which could accelerate production cuts.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iran's Kharg Island, the country's primary oil export terminal, is approaching storage capacity, which will likely force the government to reduce crude production and cause damage to Iran's oil infrastructure."Iran is also facing growing storage constraints that could force deeper production cuts, while the US continues tightening sanctions on Chinese refiners linked to Iranian oil," Kim said.Meanwhile, market participants continue to assess the impact of the shock decision to leave OPEC next month. ING strategists said that the departure during a period of significant supply disruption limits the market impact."Therefore, in the short term, this development has little impact on the market. But in the medium to longer term, it means more supply for the market," the analysts said.
US Markets
March Durable Goods Orders Rebound More Than Expected
Demand for US durable goods rebounded more than projected in March, led by computers and electronic products, while new orders for civilian aircraft slumped, government data showed Wednesday.Orders for tangible items with an average life of at least three years increased 0.8% sequentially to $318.88 billion last month, following a 1.2% drop in February, the Census Bureau said. The consensus was for a 0.5% gain for March in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.Demand for computers and electronic products rose 3.7%, while several other components also saw gains. New orders for defense aircraft and parts surged roughly 17% last month, while the civilian aircraft component tumbled 21%.Demand for defense capital goods jumped 18% month on month in March, while the nondefense component saw a 1.2% drop, the data showed.Earlier this month, planemaker Boeing (BA) said it booked orders for 161 aircraft in the first quarter, down from 241 a year earlier. For March alone, the company booked 33 gross orders.Government data showed Wednesday that US housing starts unexpectedly jumped in March amid strength in both single-unit and multi-family projects."Surging capital goods orders and housing starts in March suggest the US economy strengthened meaningfully in the first quarter," BMO Capital Markets Senior Economist Sal Guatieri said in a note.Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.9% last month, higher than Wall Street's 0.4% growth view, according to government data.Official data are expected to show Thursday that the US economy grew at a "solid" 2.3% annualized rate in the first quarter, Guatieri said Wednesday. "There appears to be no let-up in the (artificial intelligence-driven) investment boom."Price: $222.78, Change: $-7.94, Percent Change: -3.44%
$BA