March Durable Goods Orders Rebound More Than Expected

-- Demand for US durable goods rebounded more than projected in March, led by computers and electronic products, while new orders for civilian aircraft slumped, government data showed Wednesday.

Orders for tangible items with an average life of at least three years increased 0.8% sequentially to $318.88 billion last month, following a 1.2% drop in February, the Census Bureau said. The consensus was for a 0.5% gain for March in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

Demand for computers and electronic products rose 3.7%, while several other components also saw gains. New orders for defense aircraft and parts surged roughly 17% last month, while the civilian aircraft component tumbled 21%.

Demand for defense capital goods jumped 18% month on month in March, while the nondefense component saw a 1.2% drop, the data showed.

Earlier this month, planemaker Boeing (BA) said it booked orders for 161 aircraft in the first quarter, down from 241 a year earlier. For March alone, the company booked 33 gross orders.

Government data showed Wednesday that US housing starts unexpectedly jumped in March amid strength in both single-unit and multi-family projects.

"Surging capital goods orders and housing starts in March suggest the US economy strengthened meaningfully in the first quarter," BMO Capital Markets Senior Economist Sal Guatieri said in a note.

Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.9% last month, higher than Wall Street's 0.4% growth view, according to government data.

Official data are expected to show Thursday that the US economy grew at a "solid" 2.3% annualized rate in the first quarter, Guatieri said Wednesday. "There appears to be no let-up in the (artificial intelligence-driven) investment boom."

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Fed Chair Powell Says He Will Remain as Governor for Period of Time After Chair Term Ends

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday at a press conference that he will remain on the Federal Reserve board for a period of time after his term as chair ends on May 15, noting the recent attacks on the Fed and saying that "the things that have happened really in the last three months I think left me no choice but to stay until I see them through at least that long."An investigation into Powell's actions as chair during the remodeling of headquarters at the Fed was halted by the Department of Justice, but it could be reopened if the Fed's inspector general finds wrongdoing, providing uncertainty."I have said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality and I stand by that," Powell said. "I am encouraged by recent developments, and I am watching the remaining steps in this process carefully."Powell said that his decision to remain on board has nothing to do with political comments, but rather his concern about the recent attack on the Fed by the Trump administration."After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as governor for a period of time to be determined," Powell said. "I plan to keep a low profile as a governor. There is only one chair of the Federal Reserve.""I will leave when I think it's appropriate to do so," he added.At the meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain its target rate at a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, but there were dissents in favor of both a lowering of the policy rate by one member and in favor of eliminating the bias toward easing in the statement by three members.

UAE Pushes for Greater Control Over Oil Output, Limited Near-Term Market Impact, RBC Says

The UAE's decision to leave OPEC is unlikely to disrupt oil markets in the near term, but points to a broader strategic realignment as the Gulf producer seeks greater control over its output policy amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note on Tuesday.The UAE has for years pushed to monetize investments in expanding crude capacity and promoting its Murban benchmark, a strategy that has at times strained relations within OPEC.RBC analysts said disputes over production baselines, including a July 2021 standoff that delayed an agreement for nearly two weeks, underscored friction between the UAE and other members over output quotas.The analysts said the UAE's departure reflects a continuation of these tensions, as the country has consistently sought higher production targets. A subsequent push in 2023 to revise its baseline led to a complex redistribution of quotas, reducing allocations for some African producers.However, despite the policy shift, the UAE is not expected to significantly increase production beyond levels seen in early 2026 once the conflict subsides.The Gulf state has been operating close to its current capacity, and post-war reconstruction demands are likely to temper any rapid supply increases.UAE authorities, in a statement, said it would continue to bring additional barrels to market "in a gradual and measured manner," aligned with demand and prevailing conditions.RBC analysts said this suggests spare capacity within the global system will remain concentrated in Saudi Arabia for the foreseeable future.The move comes at a critical moment in the regional conflict with Iran, which has heightened concerns over energy security, particularly around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.The UAE has been among the most vocal Gulf states opposing any scenario in which Iran maintains influence over the passage, citing repeated drone and missile attacks on its territory.The country's increasingly assertive stance appears to align more closely with Israel than with some Gulf neighbors.RBC analysts expect closer cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Israel on energy security and critical infrastructure once the conflict ends, potentially including joint investments and expanded defense agreements in strategic areas such as the Red Sea.The analyst said the UAE's exit does not signal an imminent fragmentation of OPEC. With no immediate requirement for coordinated production cuts and many member states focused on rebuilding capacity after the conflict, the group is expected to remain broadly intact in the near term.

March Durable Goods Orders Rebound More Than Expected

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The UAE's decision to leave OPEC is unlikely to disrupt oil markets in the near term, but points to a broader strategic realignment as the Gulf producer seeks greater control over its output policy amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note on Tuesday.The UAE has for years pushed to monetize investments in expanding crude capacity and promoting its Murban benchmark, a strategy that has at times strained relations within OPEC.RBC analysts said disputes over production baselines, including a July 2021 standoff that delayed an agreement for nearly two weeks, underscored friction between the UAE and other members over output quotas.The analysts said the UAE's departure reflects a continuation of these tensions, as the country has consistently sought higher production targets. A subsequent push in 2023 to revise its baseline led to a complex redistribution of quotas, reducing allocations for some African producers.However, despite the policy shift, the UAE is not expected to significantly increase production beyond levels seen in early 2026 once the conflict subsides.The Gulf state has been operating close to its current capacity, and post-war reconstruction demands are likely to temper any rapid supply increases.UAE authorities, in a statement, said it would continue to bring additional barrels to market "in a gradual and measured manner," aligned with demand and prevailing conditions.RBC analysts said this suggests spare capacity within the global system will remain concentrated in Saudi Arabia for the foreseeable future.The move comes at a critical moment in the regional conflict with Iran, which has heightened concerns over energy security, particularly around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.The UAE has been among the most vocal Gulf states opposing any scenario in which Iran maintains influence over the passage, citing repeated drone and missile attacks on its territory.The country's increasingly assertive stance appears to align more closely with Israel than with some Gulf neighbors.RBC analysts expect closer cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Israel on energy security and critical infrastructure once the conflict ends, potentially including joint investments and expanded defense agreements in strategic areas such as the Red Sea.The analyst said the UAE's exit does not signal an imminent fragmentation of OPEC. With no immediate requirement for coordinated production cuts and many member states focused on rebuilding capacity after the conflict, the group is expected to remain broadly intact in the near term.