-- 資深市場觀察家戴維·羅森伯格在周二公佈數據後表示,加拿大近期大宗商品價格上漲,為其帶來了“一份巨大的禮物”,推動最新貿易數據從2月份的51億加元逆差轉為3月份的18億加元順差。 羅森伯格表示:“我們自2025年1月以來就沒見過如此大的貿易順差。” 他說:“市場普遍預期貿易會有所改善,但沒想到會如此顯著——市場原本預計逆差會減半至25億加元。” 羅森伯格指出,繼2月強勁反彈6.8%之後,3月出口較上季飆漲8.5%,再次逼近歷史高點。然而,他表示,進口環比下降1.6%(實際下降2.5%)這一事實“可能會引起人們的質疑”,這可能會使人們對國內需求數據的真實性產生疑問。 羅森伯格表示,鑑於國際收支平衡表的正面影響(以名義值衡量),這一消息對加幣(CAD 或 loonie)來說無疑是利好消息。但他補充說,就國內生產毛額而言,影響則不那麼顯著,因為實際出口當月增速僅 2.2%。 羅森伯格指出,加拿大正受惠於伊朗戰爭及其引發的能源價格飆升。能源產業出口較上季成長 15.6%,自 2010 年以來僅出現過四次如此高的成長速度。金屬和礦產出口收入在 2 月增長 12% 的基礎上,又環比增長 24%——羅森伯格表示,歷史上僅出現過兩次如此強勁的連續增長。 「但有趣的是,這一切在多大程度上都體現在價格而非數量上。我並非要潑冷水,但作為衡量國內競爭力不足的一個指標,加拿大工業機械等製成品的出口在3月份下降了3.7%,這是自去年8月以來的最大降幅(而且目前的水平與當時相比幾乎沒有變化),」他補充道。
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