-- 火曜日の米国株式先物は、米イラン間の交渉の動向をトレーダーが注視し、連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）の最新の金利決定と企業決算発表を待つ中、概ね下落傾向を示した。 S&P500種株価指数は0.2%、ナスダック総合指数は0.6%それぞれ下落した一方、ダウ工業株30種平均はプレマーケット取引で0.3%上昇した。ナスダックとS&P500は月曜日の取引を2営業日連続で終値高値を更新して終えたが、ダウ平均は下落した。 ブルームバーグ通信によると、ホワイトハウスのカロライン・リービット報道官は月曜日、ドナルド・トランプ大統領が国家安全保障当局者らと、イランが提示した重要なホルムズ海峡再開に関する新たな提案を検討したと述べた。リービット報道官は、トランプ大統領はイランに関して「レッドライン」を極めて明確にしており、この問題に「近いうちに」対処するだろうと述べた。 米アクシオス通信は、米当局者と他の2人の情報源を引用し、イランがホルムズ海峡の再開とウラン濃縮に関する協議の延期を求める提案を最近提出したと報じた。 ウェスト・テキサス・インターミディエイト（WTI）原油は取引開始前に3.5%上昇し、1バレル99.73ドルとなった。一方、ブレント原油は2.8%上昇し、111.28ドルとなった。 米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）の金融政策委員会は本日、金利に関する会合を開始し、明日決定を下す予定だ。CMEのフェデウォッチによると、市場はFRBが3会合連続で政策金利を据え置くと広く予想している。 マッコーリー・グループのエコノミクス責任者、デビッド・ドイル氏は、連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）の決定は予想通りとなる可能性が高いため、市場はジェローム・パウエル議長の政策声明と会合後の発言に注目するだろうと述べた。 「原油価格の高騰が2カ月近く続いていることを踏まえると、今後のガイダンスは若干変更される可能性がある」と、彼は月曜日にに電子メールで送付したレポートの中で述べた。「これは、変更が限定的だった3月とは対照的だ。我々の見解は、次の政策措置は利上げとなる可能性が高く、その時期は（2027年前半）が最も可能性が高いという点に変わりはない。」 プレマーケット取引では、米国債利回りは上昇傾向にあり、2年債利回りは1.9ベーシスポイント上昇して3.82%、10年債利回りは1.8ベーシスポイント上昇して4.35%となった。 コカ・コーラ（KO）、S&Pグローバル（SPGI）、スポティファイ・テクノロジー（SPOT）、ユナイテッド・パーセル・サービス（UPS）、シャーウィン・ウィリアムズ（SHW）、ヒルトン・ワールドワイド（HLT）、ゼネラル・モーターズ（GM）などが、取引開始前に最新の決算を発表する予定だ。 Visa（V）、T-Mobile US（TMUS）、スターバックス（SBUX）は、市場取引終了後に決算を発表します。 ソーシャルメディア企業のSnap（SNAP）の株価は、前日の取引を7.3%急騰して終えた後、取引開始前に0.2%下落しました。コンピューターソフトウェア企業のCadence Design Systems（CDNS）は、最新の四半期決算発表を受けて0.4%下落しました。Oracle（ORCL）は5.5%下落しました。 火曜日の経済指標発表予定としては、午前9時（東部時間）にケース・シラー住宅価格指数と連邦住宅金融庁住宅価格指数（いずれも2月分）が発表されます。午前10時には、4月の消費者信頼感指数とリッチモンド連銀製造業景況指数が発表されます。 金価格は1.4%下落し、1トロイオンスあたり4,626ドルとなりました。ビットコイン価格は0.2%下落し、76,604ドルとなりました。
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German Shares Slip; Qiagen Tumbles on Outlook Downgrade
The German blue-chip DAX was down 0.27% on Tuesday, as investors assess the ongoing diplomatic stalemate between the US and Iran alongside the latest round of corporate earnings and trading updates.Qiagen (QIA.F) was DAX's worst performer, falling 10.76%, after lowering its full-year 2026 net sales outlook to between 1% and 2% growth at constant exchange rates, down from its earlier target of at least 5%. The molecular testing company also projects a 2% decline in net sales from last year's $534 million.Concurrently, Bayer's (BAYN.F) shares retreated by 4.01%, after Bloomberg News reported the US Supreme Court signaled a split opinion on how to handle ongoing Roundup lawsuits. Despite the market's reaction, mwb Research characterized the hearing of Monsanto v. Durnell as "broadly neutral to slightly constructive," viewing it as another part of the German life sciences company's broader strategy to contain its Roundup litigation liabilities."While oral arguments provided no decisive read through and justices appeared divided, Supreme Court pre-emption remains a credible catalyst alongside the pending USD 7.25bn settlement, both of which improve visibility around Bayer's largest structural overhang. A favorable ruling would not eliminate all litigation immediately, but it would strengthen Bayer's legal position, reducing future cash uncertainty and supporting sentiment around the Crop Science business. With the market still over-discounting prolonged litigation drag, we reiterate our BUY rating and unchanged [price target] of EUR 52.00, as we continue to see scope for multiple re-rating," mwb said.In economic news, consumer inflation expectations in the euro area rose. Based on the latest monthly European Central Bank Consumer Expectations Survey, median expectations for inflation for the next 12 months and the next three years increased in March to 4% and 3%, respectively, from 2.5% a month ago. Meanwhile, the forecast for the next five years ticked up to 2.4% from 2.3% in February."Ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting, this morning's data provides more evidence that the war in the Middle East and the rise in energy prices are not only posing an inflationary shock but rather a stagflationary shock for the eurozone economy. As much as the rise in inflation expectations will fuel the rate hike debate, growing signs of adverse growth effects will make aggressive rate hikes less straightforward. Even though the ECB's primary policy goal is price stability, it's hard to see that it would really want to fight an exogenous supply shock at the cost of worsening an economic downturn," ING wrote.Speaking of the Middle East conflict, Iran's latest proposal to sideline talks about its nuclear program until the end of hostilities goes against US President Donald Trump's demands, Reuters reported, citing an unnamed US official. Trump is reportedly "unhappy" with the new terms from Tehran, insisting that nuclear issues be addressed from the outset, the news publication added.
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Asia Markets
British Equities Rise as Earnings Season Kicks Off; BP Posts Bumper Profit
London's FTSE 100 closed 0.11% higher on Tuesday as investors examined the first batch of first-quarter earnings from corporate heavyweights.Oil major BP (BP.L) gained 1.12% after profit attributable to shareholders for the three months ended March 31 surged year over year to $3.84 billion from $687 million, thanks to higher margins and oil trading contribution."BP reported strong numbers this morning, with a 20% beat vs. market expectations at the net income level (7% ahead of RBCe)," RBC Capital Markets said. "Looking divisionally, the star of the show was the downstream, with BP reporting higher refining & trading numbers, well in excess of consensus and ~$200m ahead of our estimates for the quarter, supported by exceptional oil trading results."Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP.L) rose 1.89% after reporting fiscal first-quarter revenue of 5 billion euros, up from 4.69 billion euros a year earlier. The bottling company also reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting revenue growth of 3% to 4% and operating profit growth of 7%."Whilst the consumer environment remains challenging and the full impact of the situation in the Middle East is uncertain, we are resilient," Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Chief Executive Officer Damian Gammell said.On the economic front, the UK's shop price inflation edged down to 1% year over year in April from 1.2% in March, the British Retail Consortium said. The consensus estimate for the month was 1.5%. BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson attributed the increase to discounts offered by retailers on certain Easter goods to encourage spending."Increased fuel prices are already leading to higher inflation, and we can expect a similar impact in the food and non-food supply chains in the months to come," said consumer intelligence firm NIQ's head of retailer and business insight, Mike Watkins. "However, retailers will look to hold back any price increases as long as possible as alongside fragile consumer confidence, accelerating inflation is likely to negatively affect consumer spending."
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