研究快訊：藝康第一季業績穩健；成長加速；短期利潤率預計承壓

German Shares Slip; Qiagen Tumbles on Outlook Downgrade

The German blue-chip DAX was down 0.27% on Tuesday, as investors assess the ongoing diplomatic stalemate between the US and Iran alongside the latest round of corporate earnings and trading updates.Qiagen (QIA.F) was DAX's worst performer, falling 10.76%, after lowering its full-year 2026 net sales outlook to between 1% and 2% growth at constant exchange rates, down from its earlier target of at least 5%. The molecular testing company also projects a 2% decline in net sales from last year's $534 million.Concurrently, Bayer's (BAYN.F) shares retreated by 4.01%, after Bloomberg News reported the US Supreme Court signaled a split opinion on how to handle ongoing Roundup lawsuits. Despite the market's reaction, mwb Research characterized the hearing of Monsanto v. Durnell as "broadly neutral to slightly constructive," viewing it as another part of the German life sciences company's broader strategy to contain its Roundup litigation liabilities."While oral arguments provided no decisive read through and justices appeared divided, Supreme Court pre-emption remains a credible catalyst alongside the pending USD 7.25bn settlement, both of which improve visibility around Bayer's largest structural overhang. A favorable ruling would not eliminate all litigation immediately, but it would strengthen Bayer's legal position, reducing future cash uncertainty and supporting sentiment around the Crop Science business. With the market still over-discounting prolonged litigation drag, we reiterate our BUY rating and unchanged [price target] of EUR 52.00, as we continue to see scope for multiple re-rating," mwb said.In economic news, consumer inflation expectations in the euro area rose. Based on the latest monthly European Central Bank Consumer Expectations Survey, median expectations for inflation for the next 12 months and the next three years increased in March to 4% and 3%, respectively, from 2.5% a month ago. Meanwhile, the forecast for the next five years ticked up to 2.4% from 2.3% in February."Ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting, this morning's data provides more evidence that the war in the Middle East and the rise in energy prices are not only posing an inflationary shock but rather a stagflationary shock for the eurozone economy. As much as the rise in inflation expectations will fuel the rate hike debate, growing signs of adverse growth effects will make aggressive rate hikes less straightforward. Even though the ECB's primary policy goal is price stability, it's hard to see that it would really want to fight an exogenous supply shock at the cost of worsening an economic downturn," ING wrote.Speaking of the Middle East conflict, Iran's latest proposal to sideline talks about its nuclear program until the end of hostilities goes against US President Donald Trump's demands, Reuters reported, citing an unnamed US official. Trump is reportedly "unhappy" with the new terms from Tehran, insisting that nuclear issues be addressed from the outset, the news publication added.

US 2-Year FRN High Discount Margin 0.103% vs 0.115% Previous; Bid/Cover 3.52 vs 2.78 Previous

British Equities Rise as Earnings Season Kicks Off; BP Posts Bumper Profit

London's FTSE 100 closed 0.11% higher on Tuesday as investors examined the first batch of first-quarter earnings from corporate heavyweights.Oil major BP (BP.L) gained 1.12% after profit attributable to shareholders for the three months ended March 31 surged year over year to $3.84 billion from $687 million, thanks to higher margins and oil trading contribution."BP reported strong numbers this morning, with a 20% beat vs. market expectations at the net income level (7% ahead of RBCe)," RBC Capital Markets said. "Looking divisionally, the star of the show was the downstream, with BP reporting higher refining & trading numbers, well in excess of consensus and ~$200m ahead of our estimates for the quarter, supported by exceptional oil trading results."Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP.L) rose 1.89% after reporting fiscal first-quarter revenue of 5 billion euros, up from 4.69 billion euros a year earlier. The bottling company also reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting revenue growth of 3% to 4% and operating profit growth of 7%."Whilst the consumer environment remains challenging and the full impact of the situation in the Middle East is uncertain, we are resilient," Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Chief Executive Officer Damian Gammell said.On the economic front, the UK's shop price inflation edged down to 1% year over year in April from 1.2% in March, the British Retail Consortium said. The consensus estimate for the month was 1.5%. BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson attributed the increase to discounts offered by retailers on certain Easter goods to encourage spending."Increased fuel prices are already leading to higher inflation, and we can expect a similar impact in the food and non-food supply chains in the months to come," said consumer intelligence firm NIQ's head of retailer and business insight, Mike Watkins. "However, retailers will look to hold back any price increases as long as possible as alongside fragile consumer confidence, accelerating inflation is likely to negatively affect consumer spending."