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尽管霍尔木兹海峡干扰不断,分析师仍预期欧佩克将再次提高产量。

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-- 分析人士告诉,即将于周日举行的石油输出国组织(欧佩克)及其盟友七个成员国的会议预计将再次提高产量配额,但这一决定在很大程度上仍停留在纸面上,直到霍尔木兹海峡问题得到解决。 Argus Media中东海湾地区编辑纳德尔·伊塔伊姆在一封电子邮件中表示,他预计此次会议的结果将与3月和4月的会议大体相似,即“理论上”提高产量配额,不太可能产生任何实际影响。 他将此归因于自冲突爆发以来,过去两个月大多数欧佩克+成员国的产量大幅下降,导致产量“远低于配额”,而4月份的增产计划仍未落实。 然而,他预计产量将再次提高,因为这些会议的目的是“规划未来,而不是影响当前的供应”。 他预计增幅将低于上月的每日20.6万桶,这主要是由于阿联酋本周早些时候退出欧佩克+,其产量仅占上月增幅的不到10%,即每日不足2万桶。按照同样的计算方法,他预计即将召开的会议将使欧佩克+的产量增加18.8万桶/日。 斯巴达商品公司(Sparta Commodities)研究主管尼尔·克罗斯比(Neil Crosby)也持类似观点,他指出,相对于欧佩克+的整体产量而言,阿联酋的退出“只是沧海一粟”。 他表示,即使霍尔木兹海峡重新开放,这个海湾国家退出欧佩克+的决定充其量也“更多地反映了中期供应问题”,而且由于世界各国都在补充战争期间消耗殆尽的库存,因此这也不会构成问题。

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