-- 週三早盤，受伊朗和美國即將達成結束戰爭協議以及美國私營部門上月招聘人數激增的報道提振，美元和收益率大幅走低，金價上漲。 6月交割的黃金期貨價格上漲123.10美元，至每盎司4,691.60美元。 貴金屬價格上漲的原因是，有報告指出伊朗和美國即將達成結束敵對行動的談判協議，美國總統川普隨後證實了這一消息。川普在社群媒體上發文稱，如果伊朗同意美國的和平提議，戰爭“將會結束”，霍爾木茲海峽將重新開放通航。 由於市場預期該協議將重新開放霍爾木茲海峽（波斯灣國家每日20%石油供應的咽喉要道），緩解了人們對供應衝擊導致通膨上升和利率走高的擔憂，油價大幅下跌。 盛寶銀行指出：“在外國壓力和國內反對戰爭的呼聲日益高漲的雙重壓力下，華盛頓正將重心轉向重新開放海峽。” 美國私部門4月招募人數激增，ADP全國就業報告顯示，上月私部門新增就業人數10.9萬個，高於3月的6.1萬個，也高於Marketwatch先前預測的8.4萬個。 美元早盤大幅走低，ICE美元指數最新下跌0.51點至97.93。美國公債殖利率也出現下跌，兩年期公債殖利率最新下跌6.2個基點至3.888%，十年期公債殖利率下跌6.6個基點至4.364%。
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UK Shares Rally on Potential End to War; Smith & Nephew Shares Fall
London's FTSE 100 closed 2.15% higher on Wednesday on signs of a potential US-Iran deal to end the war, while expansion across the UK's private sector accelerated."Trump announced a temporary pause to 'Project Freedom,' a naval operation in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating a potential de-escalation. Oil prices declined following the announcement and continued to fall overnight, driven by expectations of progress toward a peace deal with Iran, as hinted by Trump. Trump's upcoming visit to China adds further complexity, given Beijing's close ties with Tehran and its economic reliance on oil transit through the strait," Danske Bank said.Back home, Britain's private sector output growth accelerated in April, indicating a moderate rise in manufacturing production and in services sector activity, data from S&P Global showed. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global UK PMI Composite Output Index rose to 52.6 from 50.3 in March. The flash estimate stood at 52."[This] improvement could easily prove short-lived as new business intakes remained subdued in comparison to the start of 2026," S&P Global Market Intelligence Economics Director Tim Moore said. "Survey respondents widely noted that the Middle East conflict and subsequent global supply chain disruptions had weighed heavily on business and consumer confidence."In corporate news, alcoholic beverage company Diageo (DGE.L) climbed 6.34% after affirming its fiscal 2026 guidance and logging a 2.3% yearly increase in net sales for the fiscal third quarter ended March 31 to $4.48 billion."While the spirits environment remains challenging, particularly in the US, Diageo's refreshed strategy and increased reinvestment should support a medium-term growth acceleration, we believe," BofA Global Research said. "The US remains a key headwind, with limited visibility on the timing and pace of a recovery, but performance elsewhere in the group is solid. We see further upside from accelerated deleveraging."On the downside, medical device manufacturer Smith & Nephew (SN.L) dropped 3.58% after launching a $500 million share repurchase program, maintaining its outlook for full-year 2026, and posting growth in first-quarter revenue to $1.50 billion from $1.41 billion."We expect investors to be incrementally reassured by the in-line revenue delivery in Q1 and the $500m share buyback programme. However, we do not see these results as materially de-risking 2026 guidance at this stage, and we continue to see potential downside to guidance in future periods," RBC Capital Markets said.
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Research
Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Sell Rating On Shares Of Vornado Realty Trust
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lower our target by $1 to $26, 11.7x our 2026 FFO per share view. This is above office REIT peers but below VNO's three-year average forward multiple (13.6x), as negative re-leasing spreads and high vacancy levels remain despite an improving office outlook. We lower our 2026 FFO view by $0.07 to $2.22 and raise 2027's by $0.08 to $2.40. There is now increased uncertainty around whether the 350 Park Avenue redevelopment will move forward; it was the first specific item mentioned by management on the call. Citadel will ultimately decide whether the $4.5B project moves forward following a public spat with the NYC Mayor. We note that Verizon will not be building out its PENN 2 lease and has chosen to sublet the space, indicating a recent change in plans. Both PENN 1 and PENN 2 have already completed the heavy lifting for leasing, with financial benefits expected in early 2027. VNO's Park Avenue Plaza acquisition is expected to be accretive this year, with rents 40%-50% below market providing future upside.
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Research
Suncor Energy Maintained at Buy at TPH Following Q1 Results; Price Target at C$105.00
Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Wednesday maintained its buy rating on the shares of Suncor Energy (SU.TO, SU) with a C$105.00 price target following first-quarter results from the oil producer and refiner."Suncor posted Q1 beats across the board, with downstream throughput/product sales primarily driving better AFFO vs. consensus, with better-than-expected capex further supporting a clean FCF beat. Headline Q1 metrics included beats on AFFO/shr (C$3.39 vs. TPHe/Street C$3.34/3.29) and capex (C$1.08B excl. capitalized interest vs. TPHe/Street C$1.19B/1.22B), which together drove the beat on FCF (C$2.91B vs. TPHe/Street C$2.76B/$2.69B). The beat vs. our model on AFFO owed mainly to much greater Downstream performance with 498mbpd throughput coming in well north of TPHe/Street 477/472, representing 97% utilization on the newly rerated 511mbpd nameplate capacity; C$1.98B AFFO was slightly above TPHe C$1.87B but well north of Street C$1.61B. On Upstream ops, 875mbopd came in modestly below our model but also well above Street, comparing to TPHe/Street 880/868, with the delta vs. TPHe driven by Oil Sands production of 799mbopd vs. TPHe 805, with Syncrude maintenance offsetting record Fort Hills; C$2.89B AFFO vs. TPHe/Street C$2.94B/C$2.83B. E&P was in-line on volumes vs. our model but again well north of Street, at 76mbopd vs. TPHe/Street 75/62; C$0.56B AFFO vs. TPHe/Street $0.41B/C$0.35B," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon wrote.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $88.79, Change: $-6.26, Percent Change: -6.59%
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