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加拿大帝國商業銀行表示,市場對油價的反應比對加拿大意外貿易順差的反應更強烈。

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-- 加拿大帝國商業銀行(CIBC)在周二公佈數據後表示,受油價上漲帶動石油出口激增,以及黃金交易的火爆,加拿大3月貿易收支意外轉為順差。 然而,該行指出,出口量的改善幅度遠不及石油出口,就整個季度而言,淨貿易似乎仍對第一季國內生產毛額(GDP)略有拖累。 CIBC指出,3月商品貿易順差為18億加元,上月為51億加元逆差,市場普遍預期為25億加幣逆差。 該行表示,儘管經濟數據遠超預期,但市場對油價波動的反應仍更為強烈,而非對經濟數據本身的反應。 CIBC補充道,雖然3月的貿易順差出乎意料,但這主要是由價格波動驅動的,而非實際經濟活動強於預期的跡象。 鑑於上周有跡象顯示汽油價格上漲可能已經對消費者支出產生負面影響,加拿大央行仍預計今年GDP成長將較為溫和,且幾乎沒有證據顯示經濟中的閒置產能正在消化。 加拿大帝國商業銀行(CIBC)認為,有鑑於此,加拿大央行應該會忽略短期內通膨率的飆升,並維持今年利率不變。

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