-- Canada's merchandise trade balance moved into a $1.8 billion surplus in March from a $5.1 billion deficit the prior month, said TD.
Exports in March surged by 8.5% month over month following February's sturdy gain. Rapidly rising energy prices pushed crude oil exports up 18.9% month over month, while exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum rose by a sizeable 37.7% month over month.
Meanwhile, exports of motor vehicles and parts (+4.5% month over month) rose again in March as they continued their recovery from January's depressed level. In total, seven of 11 product categories registered a gain.
March's trade data showed some firming in headline activity, though all of the positive print in exports came from price impacts of higher oil prices, stated TD.
With data up until March in the books, net trade still appears poised to subtract from Q1 2026 real gross domestic product growth, reflecting a broadly stronger quarter for imports.
Looking ahead, higher oil prices should "meaningfully" lift nominal export values into Q2, helping to further improve the trade balance, accoridng to the bank.