-- Based on data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), National Bank of Canada's preliminary estimate is that seasonally adjusted home sales decreased by 2.6% from March to April, the fourth decline in five months.
As a result, transactions continued to be very low on a historical basis and stood 31.5% below their historical average, noted the bank.
Despite the Bank of Canada's interest-rate cuts in the fall, activity in Vancouver's real estate market doesn't appear to be showing any signs of a recovery in the short term, likely due to ongoing affordability issues, economic uncertainty and, more recently, geopolitical turmoil, pointed out National Bank.
In addition, the improvement in the labor market that the bank has seen over the past year in the region has recently been completely wiped out, with the unemployment rate jumping from 5.8% in February to 6.8% in March, its highest level in 12 months.
Should trade relations improve and the labor market stabilize, the potential boost in consumer confidence could stimulate activity in the residential market, National Bank stated. However, the recent rise in fixed mortgage rates due to rising inflation could limit this recovery.
On the supply side, the bank estimates that new listings jumped by 10.4% from March to April, following three monthly contractions. Still, active listings were down 0.7% during the month, probably due to a high number of cancelled listings.
Overall, market conditions, defined as the ratio of active listings to sales, loosened during the month and continued to be very loose on a historical basis, according to National Bank.