-- US natural gas futures trimmed earlier gains in after-hours trade on Monday but still climbed to a four-week high as cooler weather forecasts lifted prices.
Both the front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract rose 2.73% to $2.856 per million British thermal units.
Expectations for below-normal temperatures across key consuming regions underpinned the rally, with forecasts pointing to increased heating demand in the near term.
The Energy Buyers Guide said cooler-than-normal conditions are expected to dominate the eastern two-thirds of the US over the next two weeks, while the West is forecast to stay significantly warmer than average. Even so, overall energy demand is expected to remain subdued into mid-May, absent a major shift in weather patterns.
Despite the price strength, underlying demand signals remain mixed. The Energy Buyers Guide noted that Monday likely marked the seasonal low point for combined heating and cooling demand, with population-weighted degree days projected at just 5.1, the lowest level since early May 2025. It suggested this could represent a transition point before stronger cooling demand emerges later in the spring.
On the supply side, ample inventories continue to weigh on the broader outlook. Barchart noted that natural gas prices had dropped to a 1.5-year nearest-futures low on Apr. 17 amid robust storage levels. US Energy Information Administration data showed inventories as of Apr. 24 were 7.7% above the five-year seasonal average.
Production also remains strong. Lower-48 dry gas output was estimated at 110.1 billion cubic feet per day on Monday, up 3.2% from a year earlier and slightly above what the EIA considers typical maximum capacity for April, according to BNEF. Demand in the Lower 48 states totaled 65.5 bcf/day, up 7.0% year over year.
LNG feedgas flows showed some softening. Net flows to US LNG export terminals were estimated at 18.0 bcf/day on Monday, down 6.8% from the prior week, BNEF data showed.
Reuters, citing LSEG data, reported that exports from the LNG Canada facility exceeded 1 million metric tons in April, setting a monthly record. The plant, the country's first major LNG export terminal and the first on North America's West Coast, shipped all volumes to Asia, with more than half destined for South Korea and at least one cargo delivered to China.