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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Erase Recent Gains as Storage Swells

-- US natural gas futures extended earlier losses in after-hours trading, wiping out recent gains after government data showed a larger-than-expected injection into storage.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both fell 4.59% to $2.597 per million British thermal units.

The decline followed bearish data from the US Energy Information Administration that showed natural gas inventories in underground storage rose by 103 billion cubic feet for the week ended Apr. 17. The build exceeded market expectations for a 95-98 Bcf increase. Total stockpiles climbed to 2,063 Bcf, leaving inventories 142 Bcf above year-ago levels and 137 Bcf above the five-year average. The injection also surpassed last year's 77 Bcf build and the five-year average increase of 64 Bcf.

The Energy Buyers Guide said the 103-Bcf build was the largest on record at this point in the injection season, reflecting very low weather-related demand. Consumption across all domestic sectors hovered near seasonal minimums during the reporting week, offsetting the impact of weaker net supply. It also noted that inventories held just a 3-Bcf surplus as of Mar. 20, but that cushion has expanded to 137 Bcf over the past four weeks.

A warmer US weather outlook is expected to further dampen heating demand, putting additional pressure on prices. Barchart, citing The Commodity Weather Group, said above-average temperatures are forecast across the eastern half of the US through Apr. 27.

Total demand was estimated at 67.7 Bcf per day, up 3.1% over this time last year, Barchart said, citing BNEF data. Aegis Hedging said residential and commercial demand continued to decline as the Lower 48 weather warms, falling by a further 2 Bcf/d to 12.7 Bcf/d. That drop was partially offset by a 1.5 Bcf/d increase in power-sector demand.

On the supply side, Barchart said Lower 48 dry gas production was estimated at 110.6 Bcf/d on Thursday, up 3.7% from a year earlier. Net flows to US LNG export terminals were near capacity at 19.8 Bcf/d, up 0.3% week-on-week.

Geopolitical developments provided some underlying support. The most recent Dallas Fed survey of energy executives showed they expect the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed for months, potentially curtailing Middle Eastern supplies and boosting US LNG exports to help fill the gap.

The EIA also reported that Golden Pass LNG shipped its first cargo on Wednesday, becoming the 10th LNG export terminal in the US. The launch comes as disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz have affected more than 10 Bcf/d, around 20%, of global supply. Golden Pass LNG is currently the only new US export facility expected to begin shipments in 2026.

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