-- Weekly US crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is forecast to show a 5-million-barrel draw for the week ending May. 1, Macquarie strategists said in a weekly note on Tuesday, after a larger-than-expected draw of 6.2 million barrels a week ago.
Crude runs are projected to increase by about 100,000 barrels per day, though the timing of seasonal maintenance turnarounds remains a key variable.
Crude exports are projected to rise modestly by about 400,000 b/d, while imports are expected to dip by 400,000 b/d.
"Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance, particularly as exports remain elevated," Macquarie strategists said.
Macquarie projected that domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, will drop by 300,000 b/d for the week ended May. 1, while stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decrease by 5.2 million bbls.
On the products front, gasoline inventories are forecast to fall by 400,000 bbls, distillate inventories by 3.8 million bbls, while jet fuel stocks are projected to rise by about 200,000 bbls.
Macquarie forecasts the combined implied demand for gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel at about 14.6 mmb/d.