-- The United Arab Emirates' impending exit from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Friday deals a heavy blow to the oil-producing cartel but is unlikely to lead to a breakup of the group or have a significant near-term impact on crude prices, industry watchers say.
The timing of the UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ was planned well, ING analysts said Wednesday, noting that announcing the move amid a period of significant oil supply disruptions cushions its market impact. "Had this been announced any other time, we would likely have seen more downward pressure on oil prices."
The UAE has long pushed for greater crude production but was trumped by OPEC production quotas in recent years. The departure will give the country freedom to boost output, with current production capacity of nearly 4.9 million barrels per day and plans to reach 5 mb/d by 2027.
"However, before this can be tapped, there must be a resolution in the Persian Gulf that allows for uninhibited energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz once again," ING added. "Therefore, in the short term, this development has little impact on the market. But in the medium to longer term, it means more supply for the market."
As OPEC's 11 other members have not shown signs of following in the UAE's footsteps, analysts agree that the cartel will remain, albeit with reduced power in the oil market.
"While much remains in the air regarding how the war ends, we do not think that [Tuesday's] announcement portends a broader breakup in the producer group, especially as there is no near-term need for any OPEC production cuts and many members will be focused on building back capacity post-conflict," RBC Capital Markets said Tuesday.
The exit is also likely a harbinger of joint investments between the UAE and Israel, signaling a "broader strategic realignment in the region," RBC said.
"Given there will be increased focus on energy security post-war, we anticipate a closer partnership between Israel and Abu Dhabi in this arena going forward. We will be looking for joint investment announcements around critical de-risking infrastructure projects as well as additional defense cooperation agreements, including core priority areas such as the Red Sea."