-- TotalEnergies (TTE) is expected to deliver stronger Q1 2026 results following its trading update and higher commodity price assumptions, RBC Capital Markets said in a Wednesday note.
RBC said upstream production remained stable over the quarter, with total output estimated at about 2,547 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, broadly in line with the 2,545 kboe/d consensus.
Liquids production is expected at about 1,460 kboe/d, below the 1,524 kboe/d consensus, while gas volumes are seen at about 5,910 million cubic feet per day, above the 5,520 mmcfd consensus.
Stronger LNG volumes, up about 10% over the quarter, are expected to support earnings growth despite relatively flat LNG prices.
RBC noted higher realizations in March and stable production trends should drive sequential upstream earnings growth.
Trading performance is also expected to improve, with RBC estimating about a $500 million benefit from stronger oil trading and higher export margins into Europe.
RBC raised its Q1 adjusted net income estimate to about $5.45 billion, and increased cash flow from operating activities to about $8.84 billion, above the $8.29 billion consensus.
Upstream earnings are now estimated at about $2.64 billion, slightly above the $2.58 billion consensus, while integrated LNG is seen at about $1.28 billion, above the $1.21 billion consensus.
Refining and chemicals earnings are expected at about $1.56 billion, well above the $1.18 billion consensus, while integrated power is estimated at about $520 million, slightly below the $543 million consensus.
Marketing and services earnings are projected at about $242 million, below the $300 million consensus, reflecting weaker segment contributions.
For 2026, RBC forecasts group EBITDA of about $47.35 billion, rising from $34.27 billion in 2025.
RBC maintained its Outperform rating and 85 euro ($99.55) price target, citing portfolio strength, improving cash flow visibility and continued growth across upstream and LNG operations.
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