Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Opinion On Shares Of Strategy

-- CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

We lift our 12-month target price by $26 to $198, assuming a 10% BTC yield in 2026 (997K BTC by year-end), a $85K BTC target price, and a 1.20x mNAV (BTC/EV premium). We feel traditional valuation multiples are irrelevant and focus on capital-raising efforts and mNAV estimates to determine our price target. We expect MSTR to acquire 280K-350K BTC in 2026 based on new capital, average BTC prices, and mNAV assumptions. Management announced its intent to move from a passive buy-and-hold vehicle to active management. MSTR currently has $2.2B in BTC it could sell at a loss and pay preferred dividends, creating less dilution vs newly raised capital. Management was willing to potentially sell BTC if mNAV fell below 1.2x and use the proceeds to repurchase stock. Management already raised $11.7B YTD in proceeds, ahead of our view, and we expect STRC to remain the primary vehicle for newly raised capital unless mNAV expands to 1.4x-1.6x. We forecast EPS of $20 (down from $30) in 2026 and $40 (unchanged) in 2027.