-- RBC Capital Markets provided a first-quarter earnings preview for stocks in its Canadian Technology coverage universe on Friday.
The S&P/TSX Info-Tech sub-sector had its "worst start to the year" since 2022, due to the continued downward re-rating of software stocks on concerns regarding AI disruption, noted RBC.
While RBC expects Q1 results to be "largely in line" with consensus and believes the "magnitude of the pullback in software valuations is an overreaction," it believes sentiment is unlikely to materially change in the short term.
Even though RBC anticipates "slightly improved organic growth" for the average stock in its coverage this quarter, the market appears "risk-averse and may largely ignore positive surprises and disproportionately penalize negative surprises," in light of the market sensitivity regarding AI disruption and uncertainty regarding the macro environment, said RBC.
Among its covered stocks, RBC believes the "best-positioned stocks" for calendar Q1 results are Celestica (CLS.TO), Shopify (SHOP.TO), Constellation Software (CSU.TO), and Kinaxis (KXS.TO).
RBC believes Celestica will report Q1 earnings above consensus and increase FY26 guidance, given hyperscaler capex continues to increase, along with strong network switch and AI server demand, against Celestica's historically conservative outlook, added RBC.
"Given the strong 36% YTD rally in Celestica's shares, Q1 results may not be a catalyst for the stock," said RBC. "Even so, we believe Celestica's strong growth momentum, ongoing margin expansion, and mix shift to more structurally attractive segments of the market are likely to help sustain Celestica's valuation to remain above peers and toward the high end of its historical range."
For Shopify, RBC expects "solid" Q1 results and Q2 guidance slightly above consensus estimates.
U.S. e-commerce spending strengthened through Q1, noted RBC which it believes implies revenue growth accelerates sequentially, with Q1 revenue and adj. EPS likely slightly above consensus.
"While the valuation of Shopify's shares has re-rated down with the YTD pullback in software stocks, Shopify's fundamentals remain solid, in our view, and we expect strong growth to drive shareholder returns over the long term," said RBC.
RBC expects Constellation's shares to modestly rally following Q1 results.
"With the stock trading near multi-year valuation lows, we see investor sentiment improving, given Q1 slightly ahead of consensus, TTM free cashflow up 25%, and annualized Q1 capital deployed on acquisitions likely tracking to a new record," said RBC. "We see Constellation's valuation as compelling, compared to our forecast for a 17% adj. EBITDA CAGR over the next 3 years."
RBC believes Kinaxis's shares may "slightly rally" following Q1 results. It expects Kinaxis to report "solid" Q1 results, slightly above consensus, with continued growth re-acceleration and likely healthy bookings.
"With Kinaxis seeing reaccelerating growth, but trading at discounted valuation levels, we see compelling risk-reward on the shares," added RBC. "Moreover, ramping share buybacks may provide a floor for the stock."
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