-- Upcoming results of several key payment-focused and financial technology companies are likely to either meet or exceed expectations, though firms are seen having a cautious outlook on the consumer amid war-driven inflationary pressures, RBC Capital Markets said in a note e-mailed Monday.
PayPal (PYPL), Fiserv (FISV), Shift4 Payments (FOUR), Affirm (AFRM), Block (XYZ), Corpay (CPAY), Global Payments (GPN), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS), Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY), Rocket (RKT), Toast (TOST), and NCR Voyix (VYX) are among the companies scheduled to report their latest quarterly financial results this week.
"We believe that the payments group will deliver in-line to better-than-expected results, except for (Shift4), which we believe will be impacted by seasonally weaker and Middle East-impacted Global Blue; PayPal, and (NCR)," RBC analyst Daniel Perlin said in a note to clients. "While we expect higher tax returns to benefit spending trends this quarter, we expect management teams to have a cautious outlook on the consumer on the basis of higher fuel prices and a general inflationary environment impacting discretionary spending."
High recurring revenue and a strong demand backdrop likely insulate Jack Henry and Fidelity National from broader economic volatility, according to the brokerage. "The macro is not in the driver seat for them, and we expect management teams to continue reinforcing their view that the cores have a data and compliance moat from (artificial intelligence) disruption," Perlin said.
Recently, Visa's (V) latest quarterly results showed payments volume growth in the US, while Mastercard (MA) saw purchase volume growth in that market, according to RBC. This indicates that restaurant and retail has likely "held up," though cross-border and travel continue to be areas of caution, Perlin said.
PayPal's branded checkout performance in the first quarter will likely be pressured due to exposure to the Middle East conflict and pullback from low-income consumers. However, the investors will be focused on the company's potential future strategic direction instead of just the quarterly results, according to the note.
RBC expects Global Payments to face "modest" headwinds in the first half of 2026 due to its exposure to Middle Eastern airlines and the ongoing conflict in the region. Despite having minimal Middle East ties, inflation and small- and medium-business exposure could challenge Fiserv in the near term.
Affirm is seeing robust consumer demand despite high fuel costs, RBC said. "Affirm's potential Middle East exposure is more of a knock-on effect associated with higher oil prices crowding out overall consumer spending, and with (Affirm's) tilt toward lower-end consumers, it's probable to assume some potential weakness in that cohort."
Block's Cash App Borrow offering is likely to see strong demand amid consumer pressure, according to the brokerage. "As for (the first quarter), intra-quarter conversations suggest overall volume trends in both Cash App and Seller appear to be holding up, with additional levers benefiting (the second quarter)," Perlin said.
Energy prices have surged as the US-Israel war with Iran curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The conflict paused following a recent ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, but a framework for a permanent truce is yet to be reached. The war started at the end of February.
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