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Nigeria Sees Major Shortfall in Crude Deliveries to Local Refineries in Q1 Despite Higher Allocations

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-- Nigeria's domestic refineries are receiving far less crude oil than they are allocated under the country's supply obligation framework, according to data released by the country's upstream regulator on Tuesday.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission released data on the enforcement of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation in accordance with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act.

The data show that 61.9 million barrels of crude were allocated to local refineries in Q1 2026, even as producers offered a significantly higher volume of 68.7 mmbbls.

Of this, only 28.5 mmbbls were actually delivered, resulting in a conversion rate of roughly 36-46% in Q1.

The DCSO aims to ensure that local refineries have access to sufficient feedstock.

Monthly figures show uneven performance across the quarter. In January, regulators directed 22.6 mmbbls to be supplied.

Producers exceeded expectations by offering 25.3 mmbbls, but actual deliveries came in at 9.2 mmbbls.

In February, the allocation was set at 20.5 mmbbls. Producers offered slightly less at 19.8 mmbbls, falling short of the target. Deliveries remained weak at 9.1 mmbbls.

March saw an improvement in physical supply, which rose to 10.1 mmbbls. That month, producers offered 23.6 mmbbls against an 18.8-mmbbl allocation, a surplus of 4.8 mmbbls on paper.

Despite higher offers in some months, the regulator said the consistent gap between offered and delivered volumes is driven largely by pricing disagreements between producers and domestic refiners.

The DCSO system operates on a "willing buyer, willing seller" model, which allows both sides to reject transactions if terms are not agreed upon.

The commission said it remains focused on improving domestic supply outcomes and supporting government efforts to achieve energy security.

It added that it will continue refining the DCSO framework under the Petroleum Industry Act to improve compliance, transparency, and delivery efficiency.

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