-- US natural gas production is expected to see only modest growth this summer, constrained largely by pipeline capacity bottlenecks in key regions, analysts at Wood Mackenzie said in a Tuesday note.
They said output across the Lower 48 states will be anchored by major producing basins, including the Permian Basin, the Haynesville Shale, the Eagle Ford Shale, and the Marcellus/Utica. Among these, only the Eagle Ford is expected to deliver noticeable incremental growth in the near term.
Seasonal price dynamics could also weigh on supply. As in previous summers, relatively soft prices may prompt producers to shut in output, particularly in Appalachia and parts of Western Canada. However, analysts expect production to recover later in the year as pipeline constraints ease.
LNG developments, typically a source of downside risk due to potential disruptions such as hurricanes, are providing a counterbalance in 2026.
Expansion activity is underway at Cheniere Energy's (LNG) Corpus Christi facility, where Train 6 is undergoing testing ahead of a projected May startup, with Train 7 expected online by mid-to-late summer.
Meanwhile, the Golden Pass LNG facility is ramping up, with Train 1 forecast to reach 800 million cubic feet per day by June and additional capacity slated for later in the year.
Mexico is poised for structural increases in gas demand, driven largely by power generation needs both domestically and tied to US markets.
The Energia Costa Azul Liquefaction project is also expected to significantly boost feed gas demand despite ongoing delays. Still, analysts flagged risks including project postponements, competition between domestic consumption and exports, and weather-related demand variability.
Domestic demand in the US remains robust, underpinned in part by structural housing trends. Larger homes with higher ceilings are increasing heating requirements, contributing to greater seasonal demand swings.
At the same time, steady growth in electricity consumption continues to support gas-fired power generation as a critical stabilizer for the grid.
Globally, supply concerns are further supporting prices. Damage to export infrastructure at Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar is expected to have a prolonged impact on LNG output, with full recovery potentially taking years.
Analysts say this disruption could help establish a price floor for US LNG exports while reducing financial risks for new developments.
The broader geopolitical backdrop is also expected to reinforce the role of energy security, potentially enhancing the US' appeal for energy-intensive industries and supporting longer-term demand growth.