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Exxon Mobil Keeps $20 Billion Buyback Target on Track After Strong Q1 Earnings, TPH Energy Says

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-- Exxon Mobil (XOM) reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter 2026 earnings, driven by better-than-expected downstream performance, TPH Energy Research analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon said in a Friday note.

The company reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.16, beating the $0.93 TPH estimate and the $0.98 Street estimate, TPH said.

The company generated cash flow before working capital of $10.46 billion, slightly below the $10.86 billion TPH estimate and the $10.70 billion consensus.

Lower capital spending of $6.19 billion, compared with the $6.61 billion TPH estimate and the $6.71 billion consensus, supported stronger free cash flow conversion.

Exxon produced about $4.46 billion in free cash flow pre-working capital, which funded total shareholder returns of roughly $9.2 billion.

The company returned about $4.9 billion through share buybacks and $4.3 billion in dividends, keeping it on track for $20 billion in full-year 2026 buybacks.

Downstream results significantly outperformed expectations, with combined earnings of about $0.09 billion, versus TPH losses of $0.99 billion and a consensus of $1.17 billion.

Energy products reported a narrower loss of $0.56 billion, outperforming the TPH estimate which expected $1.39 billion loss and Street expectations for a $1.61 billion loss.

Specialty products delivered $0.65 billion in earnings, beating the $0.40 billion TPH estimate and the $0.43 billion Street estimate, the note added.

Upstream earnings came in at $5.74 billion, below the $5.82 billion TPH estimate and below the $6.10 billion Street estimate.

Production averaged about 4.59 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, below the 4.68 million boe/d TPH estimate and below the 4.63 million boe/d Street estimate.

Operational updates include Golden Pass LNG targeting first production in late March and first cargo in April, the note added.

Exxon highlighted Permian output near 1.7 million b/d through 2026, in line with 1.69 b/d million estimates, while Guyana production exceeded 0.9 million b/d and carbon capture capacity reached 10 million tons annually, TPH said.

Price: $152.54, Change: $-1.80, Percent Change: -1.16%

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