-- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Monday highlighted:
Markets: United States Treasuries weaken in Asia as stocks and e-minis are mostly supported (Japan and China are closed). The euro (EUR) pares Friday's gains, yen (JPY) jumps. Oil is little changed.
Fed: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack and Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan outline their views that the next move could be either cut or hike in separate statements, after dissenting that the Fed was leaning toward resuming rate cuts. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee says recent inflation data was "bad news." Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr says stress in private credit could spark "psychological contagion," leading to a broader credit crunch. Kashkari says a bigger Middle East shock may translate into labor weakness and a downward growth shift.
Tariffs: President Donald Trump vows 25% tariffs on cars and trucks from the European Union (up from 15%) this week, as the EU was "not adhering" to their agreement. Ifo's President Clemens Fuest warns new tariffs could tip Germany into recession.
Iran: The U.S. launches "Project Freedom" to escort neutral ships out of the Strait of Hormuz starting on Monday. Iran says US naval interference would be a ceasefire violation. Trump says he will review Iran's latest peace proposal, doubts that it would satisfy him, and doesn't rule out new military strikes.
U.S./China: President Trump says he will meet President Xi Jinping in China in two weeks, calls the trip "very important."
G7: President Trump says he will "probably" go to the summit in France in June.
OPEC+ agrees on a symbolic output hike by 188,000 barrels/day in June, after UAE's exit.
Merger and Acquisitions: Gamestop offers to buy eBay for $56 billion in cash and stock, with $20 billion debt financing from TD.
==EUROPE:
ECB: European Central Bank Governing Council (GC) member Joachim Nagel favors a rate hike in June unless the outlook improves markedly. GC member Olli Rehn says ECB must react "forcefully and quickly" if signs of second-round effects emerge. GC member Yannis Stournaras says a possible recession is "real and justified." GC member Madis Muller says the ECB rate at more or less neutral level allows time to wait. GC member Pierre Wunsch says Europe is "naive" in believing that the liberal economic model can survive the global shift (FT).