-- With more money coming in on the revenue side, as well as some improvement on the spending side, Canada's federal government is now projecting a smaller deficit for the last fiscal year, as well as a higher base for tax revenue entering the current year, said CIBC after Tuesday's figures.
However, recent announcements of new spending to support a "still-lacklustre" economy, alongside some further actions on Tuesday, mean that more money will also be flowing out, noted the bank. As a result, deficit projections for the current 2026/27 fiscal year and beyond are little changed compared with Budget 2025.
The $66.9 billion deficit now projected for the 2025/26 fiscal year is an $11.5 billion improvement relative to what was expected in last year's budget. Revenues, and in particular income tax revenues, are $7bn stronger, while direct program expenses are $14 billion lower.
However, that spending figure is flattered somewhat by a $6.7 billion reclassification of spending related to employee benefits, which is now considered a net actuarial loss and so didn't have an impact on the overall budget deficit, pointed out CIBC.
While the starting point has improved, new measures announced since last year's budget and accounted for for the first time in Tuesday's update, mean that the deficit projected for fiscal 2026/27 is almost unchanged relative to Budget 2025. At $65.3 billion, the shortfall would be just under 2% of nominal gross domestic product, and only slightly smaller than the prior year, stated the bank.
Longer-term projections also show the deficit running close to previous projections, as the higher revenue base continues to be offset by some of the measures announced Tuesday and in the previous weeks/months, it pointed out. The debt-to-GDP ratio rises to a peak of 41.9% in fiscal 2028/29, from 41.1%, although that peak is nearly 1.5% lower relative to Budget 2025 due largely to upward revisions in nominal GDP.
The budgetary projections were based on expectations for sluggish economic growth in the near-term, but improving in 2027 and beyond, added CIBC. Real GDP growth forecasts of 1.1% for this year and 1.9% in 2027 were little changed relative to Budget 2025, but due to the recent rise in oil prices, projections for nominal GDP were stronger (now 4.0% in 2026 versus 3.0% previously).
Even though the budget deficit for fiscal 2026/27 is little changed relative to Budget 2025, the narrower deficit last year means that financing needs for the current year are slightly lower than initially projected. Bond issuance is still expected to be the same at $298 billion, with the change in borrowing needs to be met through lower treasury bill issuance, according to CIBC.