-- Weaker supply and demand fundamentals pressured Malaysian palm oil on Tuesday, with futures slipping for a second straight session despite rising crude oil prices.
The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives' May crude palm oil contract dropped 0.07% to 4,462 Malaysian ringgit ($1,129.33) per metric ton. The June contract eased 0.11% to 4,500 ringgit/mt in midday trade.
Cargo surveyors reportedly estimated Malaysian palm oil shipments for the first 25 days of April to have declined between 15.7% and 16.8% from a month earlier. This followed a robust export demand in Q1, which posted a 29.1% year-over-year rise, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council.
Improving production outlook following a seasonal low also weighed on sentiment.
Nonetheless, Indonesia's plan to raise palm-oil based biodiesel blending to 50% from the current 40% will serve as a tailwind, as it will boost domestic consumption and reduce exportable supplies.
However, sources cited by The Edge Malaysia said the target roll out of B50 by July faces challenges, including the war-driven shortage in methanol used in biodiesel production, and the high stocks of unsold byproducts in storage tanks.
The higher biodiesel program, once implemented, could absorb an additional 3 million metric tons per year of palm oil, according to the MPOC.
In terms of production, the US Department of Agriculture said in its annual oilseeds report that Indonesia's palm oil output may reach 48 million metric tons in the 2026/27 marketing year, a 3% increase from the previous year's 46.7 mmt.
The government's move to seize illegal plantations and a possible drought related to the El Nino weather phenomenon pose supply risks.
"The probability of El Nino developing later in 2026 has risen significantly," Kpler said, with 93% chance of the weather phenomenon emerging in Q4, compared with 20% in Q2.
"Furthermore, the strength of the climate phenomenon could intensify, potentially increasing the likelihood of its weather and climatic influence," Kpler said.
For this week, palm oil prices are expected to remain rangebound "with a slightly bearish bias" due to weak export demand and expectations of higher near-term supply, according to Phillip Capital.
"However, support may come from firmer crude oil prices and steady energy sector demand, which could help limit further downside," Phillip Capital said.
Jim Teh, senior palm oil trader at Interband Group of Co., as cited by Bernama, projects palm oil prices to range from 4,200 ringgit/mt to 4,300 ringgit/mt this week due to profit taking, while the MPOC expects prices to approach 4,500 ringgit/mt in the near term.