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US Biofuels Update: Soybean Futures Fall as Iran Conflict Fuels US-China Trade Uncertainty

-- Biofuels feedstock futures closed lower on Monday, as traders became concerned that an escalation in the Strait of Hormuz may impact the US and Chinese planned meeting in May.

The Chicago Board of Trade May soybean futures contract closed 1.15% lower on Monday at $11.62 per bushel, while the CBOT May soybean oil futures contract settled 0.88% lower at 66.50 cents per pound.

On Friday, the May ethanol futures contract on the Nymex ended 0.52% higher at $1.93 per gallon.

Rhett Montgomery, DTN analyst, said soybean futures were pressured by the breakdown of the Iran-US truce, followed by the US conducting a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz.

"The soybean market snapped a three-day win streak to begin the new week, pressured by concerns that the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will subsequently sour US-China relations ahead of President Trump's visit scheduled for mid-May," Montgomery stated in a daily note.

On Monday, the US Department of Agriculture's Weekly Export Inspection Report showed that soybean inspections totaled 29.9 mb for the week ending Apr. 9.

Total inspections for 2025-26 are now at 1.158 billion bushels, down 25% from the previous year. USDA is estimating soybean exports to total 1.540 bb in 2025-26, down 18% from the previous year. Soybean inspections are running behind USDA's estimated pace, even as USDA's estimate of soybean ending stocks is 20% above the previous five-year average.

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