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Trump Moves to Block Hormuz Shipping, Threatens Iranian Vessels Near US Forces

-- US President Donald Trump said Monday the US Navy has begun enforcing a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, warning Iranian vessels risk immediate elimination if they approach, in a Truth Social post.

"Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our blockade, they will be immediately eliminated," adding the response would be "quick and brutal," he posted on Monday.

Trump said Iran's naval fleet has been "completely obliterated," with about 158 ships, "laying at the bottom of the sea," while noting that only a small number of fast attack ships remain.

His warning was targeted at remaining vessels approaching US positions.

Trump added that enforcement tactics mirror anti-drug operations, stating the US uses "the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea," while claiming "98.2% of Drugs coming into the US by ocean or sea have stopped."

The comments follow US-Iran talks held over the weekend in Islamabad that failed to yield progress, with both sides unable to resolve key disputes.

After the breakdown, Trump said Sunday that Iran must act quickly, warning, "they better begin the process of getting this international waterway open and fast."

He added that the US Navy would enforce the move, saying "effective immediately, the United States Navy... will begin the process of blockading any and all ships."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly warned that a ceasefire may end soon and backed Trump's blockade plan, according to multiple media outlets.

In an interview with Fox News on Sunday, Trump said that oil and gasoline prices may remain high through November's midterm elections. "It could be, or the same, or maybe a little bit higher, but it should be around the same," Trump reportedly told Fox News.

The US Central Command on Monday also issued directives stating that it will begin implementing the blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports at 10 ET on Monday.

"The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman," according to the statement.

The Middle East Murban crude benchmark was down 4.80% in early trading to settle at $102.87 per barrel. In contrast, Brent was up 5.46% at 100.40/bbl, and WTI futures also tracked gains, up 5.27% at $101.66/bbl.

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Oil & Energy

伍德麥肯茲表示,隨著油價反彈和經濟復甦時間表推遲,霍爾木茲海峽的干擾加劇。

伍德麥肯茲週二表示,霍爾木茲海峽的航運仍受到嚴重限制,船舶通行量遠低於正常的每日170艘,能源市場正對持續的中斷做出反應。 伍德麥肯茲指出,儘管有停火訊號,但水道實際上仍受到限制,安全通行的不確定性繼續阻礙航運活動。 儘管美國和伊朗正朝著重啟談判的方向邁進,但雙方在條件上仍存在巨大分歧,這增加了海灣能源出口長期中斷的風險。 伍德麥肯茲補充說,4月7日宣布的為期兩週的停火以及隨後在黎巴嫩進行的為期10天的暫停,曾一度提振了人們對緊張局勢緩和的樂觀情緒。 然而,兩艘印度船隻在周末試圖通過海峽時遭到砲火襲擊,被迫返航,凸顯了持續存在的風險。 伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊警告船隻不要在波斯灣和阿曼海航行,並表示「接近霍爾木茲海峽將被視為與敵人合作」。 伍德麥肯茲公司的數據顯示,停火後,船隻通行量略有回升,每天約有20艘船隻通過,但仍遠低於2月約170艘的水平。 這種有限的復甦勢頭已經逆轉,週日記錄到的船隻通行量極少,顯示石油、天然氣和化學市場持續受到干擾。 報告顯示,停火後油價最初下跌,布蘭特原油價格從每桶110美元左右下跌約14%至95美元以下,之後一度跌至略高於86美元。 隨後油價反彈,布蘭特原油6月期貨價格上漲約5%至每桶95美元左右,而歐洲天然氣價格一度攀升至每兆瓦時61.5歐元(72.21美元),之後回落至40歐元。伍德麥肯茲公司表示,美國加強了對伊朗的封鎖,扣押了一艘貨船,並加大了對伊朗相關航運的壓力。同時,雙方在周末的言論交鋒也愈發激烈。 伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊下屬媒體塔斯尼姆通訊社指出,如果敵對行動再次爆發,包括曼德海峽在內的幾個地點可能會「進入衝突區」。 伍德麥肯茲公司補充道,塔斯尼姆通訊社也提到了沙烏地阿美公司在延布和富查伊拉的資產和重要石油碼頭,這些碼頭是繞過霍爾木茲海峽的替代路線。 伍德麥肯茲公司高級副總裁艾倫·格爾德表示,和平協議或許能讓一些油輪迅速恢復航行,但霍爾木茲海峽的正常交通全面恢復可能要到6月底才能實現。 伍德麥肯茲表示,和平協議達成後,液化天然氣出口可能會出現初期激增,但全面恢復正常運作需要更長時間。 伍德麥肯茲的馬西莫·迪·奧多阿爾多表示,卡達南部液化天然氣設施的重啟可能需要三到四周,而北部設施的恢復則需要更長時間。 伍德麥肯茲指出,美國和伊朗之間日益緊張的局勢使復原時間表蒙上陰影,霍爾木茲海峽的長期中斷威脅著全球能源市場更嚴重的失衡。 伍德麥肯茲的彼得馬丁表示,布蘭特原油2026年的平均價格約為每桶85美元,並警告稱,接近每桶90美元的價格可能將全球經濟成長率推低至2%以下,甚至陷入衰退。

Research

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Asia

紐西蘭航空首席財務長將辭職

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