-- US gasoline consumption averaged 8.9 million barrels per day in 2025, down 1% over the year, signaling a structural demand shift, the US Energy Information Administration said Friday.
Total gasoline consumption declined in 2025 even as vehicle miles traveled rose, falling to an average of 8.9 million barrels per day, down 1% over the year and 4% below 2019 levels, EIA said.
The agency expects demand to continue easing through 2026 and 2027 as fuel efficiency improves further and growth in vehicle miles traveled slows, according to its April Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA added.
Gasoline demand remains closely tied to travel levels and vehicle efficiency, with consumption shaped by miles driven and fuel economy, which together determine overall fuel use trends, EIA noted.
The agency estimates fuel economy by comparing national travel data with gasoline supplied, offering a broad indicator of how efficiency and mobility trends interact across the vehicle fleet.
In 2025, travel increased 1.2% over the year, while estimated fuel economy improved by 1.9%, more than offsetting higher driving and resulting in lower gasoline consumption, EIA added.
Fuel economy gains in new gasoline vehicles have been driven by Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards and emissions rules set by US regulators, requiring automakers to improve efficiency.
While proposed policy changes could influence future efficiency trends, near-term impact is expected to be limited due to long vehicle development cycles, which typically span five to seven years, EIA added.
Gasoline demand is forecast to decline in 2026 and 2027 as efficiency gains continue and travel growth slows, with fuel economy rising about 1% annually, according to the EIA.
Growth in vehicle miles traveled is expected to slow over the next two years due to weaker employment gains and limited expansion in the working-age population, key drivers of travel demand, it said.
Employment is forecast to rise 0.3% annually versus 1.4% in 2010-19, while the working-age population is seen growing just 0.1%, EIA added, citing S&P Global estimates.
Gasoline prices are expected to remain higher through 2027 on rising crude oil costs, though the impact on consumption is likely limited as demand typically shows little short-term sensitivity to price changes, according to the EIA.