-- Walmart's (WMT) second P&L has driven a significant upward revaluation of its share price, though UBS Securities said in a note Monday that the market still does not fully reflect the long-term earnings potential or duration of growth from these businesses.
The market is debating the second P&L because it has not fully incorporated either the magnitude of its contribution or how long Walmart can sustain its current growth rate.
Amazon (AMZN) provides a close comparison and serves as a benchmark for Walmart's second P&L. UBS said Amazon's scaling of its 3P marketplace suggests Walmart can sustain the second P&L's current growth rate for an extended period.
UBS forecasts that Walmart's total enterprise-wide earnings before interest and taxes will reach about $53.7 billion by 2030, compared with $29.5 billion in 2025. The firm expects the second P&L to contribute $30.2 billion to EBIT by 2030, versus $8.5 billion in 2025.
Through 2030, the second P&L is expected to drive 75% of Walmart's EPS growth, contributing nearly $2.80 to the forecasted 2030 EPS of $5.40, according to the note.
UBS has a buy rating on Walmart, with a price target of $147.
Price: $130.37, Change: $-1.23, Percent Change: -0.93%