-- Crude futures were little changed in after-hours trading on Friday as a series of military exchanges between the US and Iran and Iranian missile attacks on the UAE threatened to collapse a fragile month-long ceasefire and reignited concerns over global supply security.
Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 0.14% to $94.68 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 0.28% to $100.34/bbl.
A US intelligence analysis reportedly concluded that Iran could withstand a naval blockade for months, suggesting that Tehran would not face severe economic pressure from a blockade of Iranian ports for about another four months.
The US expects an Iranian response to its latest proposal to end the conflict by the end of the day on Friday.
President Trump reportedly insisted the ceasefire with Iran remained in effect despite the clashes in the Hormuz, calling the exchange of fire "just a love tap." US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also told reporters in Rome that Washington is expecting "something today."
"We still believe that, given a live-fire exchange in the world's most important oil choke point, the current price action is surprisingly muted," Ole R. Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB Research, said in a note Friday.
The US and Iranian naval forces exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, with each side claiming the other initiated the attack.
Iran has largely blocked non-Iranian shipping via the Hormuz since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict on Feb. 28. The US imposed a blockade on Iranian vessels last month.
On Friday, US naval forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers, M/T Sea Star III and M/T Sevda, that violated Washington's blockade of Iranian ports.
"US Central Command enforced blockade measures against two Iranian-flagged unladen oil tankers attempting to pull into an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman," CENTCOM said in a statement on X.
Iranian authorities, meanwhile, said the Iranian Navy had seized an oil tanker, Ocean Koi, in the Gulf of Oman over what Tehran described as maritime violations and attempts to disrupt Iranian oil exports.
"The tanker had sought to exploit the ongoing situation in the region in a bid to damage and disrupt the export of oil and the interests of the Iranian nation," according to an Iranian Navy statement carried by local media.
The developments have cast more doubt on a fragile US-Iran ceasefire that President Trump insisted is still in effect, as Washington awaits the Iranian response to its latest proposal for a deal to end the conflict.
"The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with renewed clashes between US and Iranian forces lowering the prospect of a near-term reopening," Saxo Bank strategists said, adding that the International Energy Agency estimates regional supply losses at about 14 million barrels per day.
Speaking at a policy conference in Toronto, Canada, Fatih Birol, the IEA's executive director, said on Thursday that the agency was prepared to take further action after members agreed in March to release 400 million barrels of crude.