-- Crude oil futures jumped more than 4% on Wednesday as the energy market absorbed the impact of the UAE's official withdrawal from OPEC.
The Brent futures contract jumped over 5% to $116.90 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 5% to $104.93 per barrel.
The surge follows a historic blow to the global oil cartel as the UAE officially announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+, effective May 1.
Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei confirmed the move was a "policy-driven evolution" aimed at bypassing production quotas to rebuild global reserves and monetize the country's expanded capacity.
"The UAE's exit from OPEC is a big blow to the group, though it will have little impact on the market in the short term amid ongoing supply disruptions. Clearly, there may be more upside to oil supply post-Iran war," ING analysts said.
Despite the structural shift in OPEC, the primary price driver remains the instability in the Persian Gulf and the status of the Strait of Hormuz.
While President Trump claimed via social media that the Iranian administration is collapsing and eager to negotiate, he simultaneously directed aides to prepare for a prolonged naval blockade.
"With no signs of an imminent restart in oil flows we have revised higher our oil forecasts for the remainder of the year. We now expect ICE Brent to average $104/bbl in 2Q26 and $92/bbl in 4Q26," ING added.