-- US natural gas futures managed to keep some of the day's advances in after-hours trading on Monday, supported by colder weather forecasts and marking a fourth straight session of gains.
Both the front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract edged up 0.07% to $2.676 per million British thermal units.
The front-month contract traded between $2.672 and $2.746 on Monday.
Weather-driven demand expectations firmed after forecasts turned cooler. Weather Group projected below-average temperatures across the western US from Apr. 25-29 and in the eastern half of the country from Apr. 30 to May 4, according to Barchart. Energy Buyers Guide also pointed to a broadly cooler-than-normal pattern over the next two weeks, though it noted the anomalies are more likely to limit early-season cooling demand than significantly extend heating needs.
On the supply side, US gas production averaged 109.1 billion cubic feet per day, up 2% year over year, Barchart reported, citing BNEF data. Demand was estimated at 72.8 Bcf/d, an increase of 13.2% from a year earlier, while LNG feedgas flows were pegged at 20.3 Bcf/d, up 3.8% from the prior week.
Analysts at Gelber & Associates said geopolitical uncertainty, particularly around the Middle East and shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz, has contributed to volatility in global gas markets, intermittently supporting Henry Hub prices despite weak underlying fundamentals.
"Still, the move higher is starting from a depressed base," the firm said, adding that the market continues to view gains as tactical rather than the beginning of a sustained rally, with the $3/MMBtu level remaining a key resistance point.