-- CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
We keep our 12-month target at $13, 6.5x our 2027 EPS estimate (unchanged), a discount to the 10-year mean of 8.5x, reflecting heightened earnings risk. We lower our 2026 EPS to $0.48 from $0.74 and 2027's to $1.93 from $1.98, primarily reflecting higher fuel costs partially offset by strong demand and increasing passenger ticket yields. We are downgrading our opinion from Buy to Hold, viewing management's expected $4 billion increase in fuel costs as a significant earnings headwind. Our 2026 EPS estimate is above the midpoint of AAL's 2026 guidance range of -$0.40 to $1.10, reflecting our view that strong travel demand and pricing power are an offset. However, we believe the risk/reward remains unfavorable. While AAL has demonstrated impressive revenue momentum, with Q1 unit revenue up 7.6%, Atlantic revenue up 16.7%, and managed corporate revenue up 13%, the magnitude of fuel cost inflation creates substantial earnings volatility that is difficult to fully offset through pricing or operational efficiency.