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RBC Sees USD/CAD Range-Bound In Near Term, Gradual Decline Longer Term

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-- RBC Capital Markets in its CAD Weekly Soundbites (Rates & FX) note on Friday said an "event-rich" week "largely came as expected", with a "steady fiscal profile", the Bank of Canada delivering a "modestly hawkish hold" and first-quarter GDP "continuing to track above potential".

The bank said the BoC's hawkish tilt reinforces its view for a gradual decline in USD/CAD in the long term. However, it added that recent BoC and Federal Reserve meetings suggest both will be on hold in the short term, leaving a range-bound bias on USD/CAD.

In its rates view, RBC said the expected BoC hold was delivered this week, but the balance of changes tilted hawkish. The BoC modestly upgraded its GDP profile, noted the expected absorption of excess slack and said the neutral range discussion was slanted higher, even though the 2.25%-3.25% range was left unchanged.

RBC said it maintains its long-held view that the base case is the BoC on hold in 2026, with hikes in 2027, but added that the chance of second-half hikes far exceeds the chance of a cut.

On foreign exchange, RBC said this week's marginally hawkish BoC tilt reinforces its longer-run view for a gradual move lower in USD/CAD into next year, partly conditional on the BoC shifting to hikes in 2027, with risk in the second half of 2026.

However, in the near term, the bank said it continues to see the pair range-bound, as central bank meetings suggest the BoC and the Fed are likely to be on hold in the coming months, keeping US-Canada rate differentials relatively stable. That should continue to act as a floor under USD/CAD, with the 1.3500 area seen as the bottom of the range.

RBC added that a weekly close below 1.3598 has reasserted the downtrend in USD/CAD and favours a re-test of this year's lows at 1.3526 and 1.3482.

"Below there, the September 2024 low at 1.3420 would come into view. Initial resistance is located at 1.3598 and 1.3661, followed by 1.3728, with rallies to the latter two levels viewed as a selling opportunity," said George Davis, chief technical strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

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