-- Ollie's Bargain Outlet's (OLLI) relative comp softness in Q1 is due to weather as merchandise quality appears consistent alongside improving transaction data trend at April-end, RBC Capital Markets said in a Wednesday research report.
There's historically been volatility to Q1 comp, given spring timing and as some consumers have a tendency to pull back on spending after holidays, analysts wrote.
RBC now expects Q1 comps growth of 2% from 3.5% earlier and adjusted EPS of $0.88 from $0.93 prior. However, it maintained its Q2 comp growth estimate of 2% and adjusted EPS of $1.16 as softer Q1 trends should drive sales into Q2, according to the note.
The stock is down double-digit percentages from its mid-2025 peak due to fears around lapping a near ideal closeout environment, partly driven by the Big Lots bankruptcy, RBC stated.
The brokerage reiterated its outperform rating on the stock and adjusted its price target to $153 per share from $155.
Price: $85.51, Change: $-3.21, Percent Change: -3.62%