FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Oil Prices Jump as Progress on Ending the Iran War Stalls

作者

-- Oil prices were sharply higher early on Tuesday, with the U.S. benchmark price rising back above US$100 per barrel for the first time in three weeks as hopes for an end to the war on Iran fade and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen up US$4.94 to US$101.31 per barrel, the highest since April 7, while June Brent oil was up US$3.66 to US$111.89.

Weekend talks expected to be held in Pakistan between Iran and the United States failed to take place, while a Monday proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in return for lifting a U.S. blockade of its ports and deferring talks over its nuclear program was rejected by President Trump.

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after the United States and Israel launched attacks on the country on Feb. 28. The Strait is the chokepoint for 20% of daily global oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations and its closure has produced the largest-ever supply shock, pushing up oil prices by 44% since the start of the war.

"Oil extended its rally ... amid no signs of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where US and Iranian blockades have reduced daily transits to near zero. Warnings over the severity of the global supply squeeze continue to intensify, with tightness in refined fuel markets already pushing diesel and jet fuel prices toward USD 200 per barrel," Saxo Bank noted.

The closure of the Strait has pushed up spot price for oil, as the Asian nations that rely on Gulf producers compete for available barrels. Rising prices have heightened inflation and raises the risk of a global recession as the lack of supply forces demand destruction and chokes off economic growth.

"Alarm bells will ring loudly if the SoH (Strait of Hormuz) doesn't reopen during May. Spot crude and product prices will trade higher and higher. And if a decent reopening doesn't take place before June/July, then the risk is significant for a real crisis where the world may be forced to reduce its oil consumption closer to the level of availability," Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB Research, wrote.

相关文章

Australia

奥本海默称，Cadence Design Systems面临“日益增大的”估值压力

奥本海默周二在一份报告中指出，Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) 面临“日益增长的”估值压力，因为如果该公司真的是一家“人工智能公司”，其增长速度理应更快。 分析师表示，围绕该公司软件的长期人工智能前景仍未有定论。 奥本海默指出，根据该公司第一季度的业绩，人工智能的“积极”增长仍然难以实现。该公司2026年的有机增长预期为13.6%，虽然“尚可”，但远低于芯片行业64%的平均增长率。 分析师将Cadence 2026年的每股收益预期从5.06美元下调至4.43美元。FactSet调查的分析师预期为4.60美元。 报告指出，Cadence股价的催化剂包括芯片行业向软件行业的转型、人工智能增长的波动以及贸易壁垒的变化。 奥本海默公司给予该股“与大盘持平”评级，目标价为 275 美元。Price: $325.73, Change: $-10.96, Percent Change: -3.25%

$CDNS
Equities

Rystad Energy表示，阿联酋退出欧佩克及欧佩克+将移除市场控制的关键支柱。

Rystad Energy周二在一份报告中指出，阿联酋退出石油输出国组织（欧佩克）和欧佩克+，削弱了该组织管理全球石油市场的关键支柱。 分析师豪尔赫·莱昂表示：“失去一个日产能达480万桶且雄心勃勃的成员国，无疑使该组织失去了一项重要的工具。” 他还补充道，这一时机也预示着石油市场的走向。随着需求接近峰值，低成本原油生产商的考量正在迅速变化，继续依赖配额制可能意味着错失良机。 莱昂指出，因此，沙特阿拉伯将承担更多维持油价稳定的重任，而市场则失去了一个最后的缓冲机制。 短期来看，由于霍尔木兹海峡持续的混乱和整体地缘政治紧张局势，其影响可能有限，但长期影响将更为深远。分析师表示：“结构性削弱的欧佩克，其内部剩余产能减少，将越来越难以调节供应和稳定价格。” 阿联酋通讯社周二早些时候报道称，阿联酋将于5月1日退出欧佩克和欧佩克+。

Research

研究快讯：滨特尔：第一季度业绩超出预期，每股收益预期上调

独立研究机构CFRA向提供了以下研究报告。CFRA分析师总结如下：PNR第一季度每股收益为1.22美元，超出市场预期0.05美元，同比增长10%，尽管有机销售额仅增长1%。营业利润率提升100个基点至25%，毛利率提升190个基点至41.8%，反映出有效的成本控制和定价策略。我们认为，在充满挑战的住宅市场环境下，PNR在盈利能力提升计划和战略定价措施方面执行良好。鉴于利润率持续增长，管理层设定的26%营业利润率目标似乎有望实现。流动业务板块表现突出，收入增长22%，利润率提升210个基点至23.7%，受益于强劲的商业和工业需求。公司加快了资本部署，回购股票金额达2亿美元（上年同期为5000万美元），表明管理层对公司内在价值充满信心。我们认为PNR 1.7倍的杠杆率使其在股票回购和增值并购方面拥有更大的灵活性。展望未来，我们预计随着同比基数降低，2026年下半年销售额同比增速将加快。

$PNR