-- Oil prices fell early Friday on calming tensions in the Middle East as a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon held for its first day, while there are hopes for further talks between the United States and Iran.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil for May delivery was last seen down $3.89 to US$90.80 per barrel, while June Brent oil was down $3.45 to US$95.94.
Ceasefires are holding on at least two fronts in the Middle East, as Israel and Lebanon on Thursday agreed to a ceasefire in relation to Israel's war on Hezbollah militants in the country. There are also hopes for further talks between the U.S. and Iran to end their conflict that has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of daily global oil and LNG demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations.
An Israeli stand down on attacks in Lebanon was a key part of Iran's demands in talks with the U.S. and may ease the path for further talks between the two countries. U.S. President Trump on Thursday said he expects talks moderated by Pakistan to soon resume.
The Wall Street Journal on Friday reported comments from Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh that Iran is expecting talks to result in a permanent settlement to the war rather than another temporary ceasefire, citing Turkey's state news agency, while saying Iran is looking to regulate transits through the vital Strait.
While a truce between the U.S. and Iran could allow shipping through the Strait to resume, Gulf supply is likely to ramp up slowly as producers in the region restart production from shut-in oilfields, while Iran's attacks on its neighbors' oil and gas infrastructure could take years to repair.
"Oil has eased...as hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran talks and the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire have reduced some of the immediate panic premium. That said, the broader supply story has not gone away, with disruptions to Middle East production still feeding into the physical market, suggesting prices may remain elevated even if diplomacy progresses," Saxo Bank wrote.