-- New Zealand's services sector further shrank in March as the impact of the Middle East conflict was felt across business sectors.
The BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index dropped to 46.0 from 47.6 in February, according to a Monday press release from BusinessNZ.
"The services sector in New Zealand is clearly feeling the effects of the conflict in Iran," BusinessNZ Chief Executive Officer Katherine Rich said. "The industries that deal mainly in discretionary spending have been especially impacted, and this is likely to reflect a lack of consumer confidence."
The sectors involved in discretionary spending are accommodation, cafes and restaurants, and cultural and recreational services.
Travel and airlines are also affected as the U.S.-Iran conflict triggered oil price shocks, especially at the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical oil passageway. Earlier this month, Air New Zealand (NZE:AIR, ASX:AIZ) said it will make minor adjustments to about 4% of its May and June flights due to rising jet fuel costs.
All of the five sub-indexes are below the neutral reading of 50, with activities and sales the weakest at 44.6, BNZ said.
The war in Iran also widened the pessimism among survey respondents as negative comments grew to 69.1% in March from 56.4% in the previous month. The response indicated that the economy could soon be contracting, BNZ's head of research, Stephen Toplis, said.
The war is expected to bring more pressure on inflation, especially as the U.S. and Iran could not reach a deal during the two-week ceasefire. President Donald Trump ordered a blockade at the Strait of Hormuz as talks between the two countries crumbled.
Analysts from ANZ expect that the inevitable rise in inflation could prompt three straight interest rate hikes this year. The bank predicts that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to add 25 basis points in its monetary policy in July, September and October, bringing the official cash rate to 3%.
Westpac also expects the RBNZ to add 25 basis points until the OCR reaches 3.5%.
"We continue to believe that the same shape of the latter part of the interest rate cycle where the OCR rises above our assessment of neutral (which remains at 3.75%), peaking at 4.25% in December 2027 and remaining at 4.25% through 2028 before returning to 3.75% in 2029," Westpac's chief economist for New Zealand, Kelly Eckhold, said.