-- European natural gas futures extended losses in after-hours trade on Thursday, reversing some of the huge gains made the day before when prices jumped around 8% on deteriorating geopolitical signals regarding the US-Iran conflict.
The front-month Dutch TTF contract fell 1.628% to 46.10 euros ($54.06) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP contract declined 1.996% to 113.43 British pence ($1.54) per therm.
Prices have also retreated significantly from mid-March highs above 60 euros per MWh, which were driven by escalating violence in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Dutch TTF prices remain elevated compared with late-February levels, when they traded in the high 20s to low 30s euros per MWh.
Shell CEO Wael Sawan warned that oil and LNG supply disruptions linked to the conflict could persist for months and potentially extend into next year, posing risks for Europe as it seeks to refill gas storage ahead of the next heating season.
The European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) said a prolonged disruption to Qatari LNG supply through December 2026 could create a global shortfall of 26 billion cubic meters and lift EU spot LNG demand to around 56 Bcm, with price impacts dependent on the duration of the conflict.
It added that competition with Asia for flexible LNG cargoes is intensifying, potentially driving prices higher and complicating Europe's efforts to replenish storage over the summer. EU gas storage levels exited winter below 30%, near a nine-year low, following stronger power-sector demand and colder weather.
At current LNG import rates of roughly 11 Bcm per month, storage levels could reach about 80%, but achieving the EU's 90% target will likely require additional supply, which could add upward pressure on summer prices.