-- European natural gas futures traded lower after-hours on Friday after Iranian state media reported that Tehran had sent another proposal for negotiations with the US via Pakistani diplomatic channels, a development seen as potentially paving the way for renewed transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The front-month Dutch TTF contract fell 1.211% to 45.43 euros ($53.36) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP contract slipped 1.533% to 111.15 British pence ($1.51) per therm.
US President Donald Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House on Friday, said, "Iran wants to make a deal, but I'm not satisfied with it," CNBC reported.
Market participants continue to weigh geopolitical risk against relatively stable European supply conditions and weaker demand elsewhere. In a Thursday note, S&P Global analysts said Europe has benefited from "significant demand destruction elsewhere," noting that although the war has effectively removed about 20% of global LNG supply, European imports have remained broadly steady.
The note said Asia has absorbed much of the demand adjustment. It said China recorded a 19% year-on-year drop in LNG imports in March, according to government data.
Benchmark LNG prices remain elevated, but off recent highs, they said. The JKM benchmark for Northeast Asia put prices at $18.309/MMBtu on April 30, up 8.3% on the day. The DES Northwest Europe LNG marker was assessed at $15.719 per MMBtu on Apr. 29, up 7.9% day-on-day.
The analysts said both benchmarks remain above pre-conflict levels but have retreated from peaks seen in the early weeks of the disruption.
European storage levels remain below last year's levels. Gas Infrastructure Europe reported inventories at 32.49% as of Friday, compared with 39.22% a year earlier.
CERA analysts project EU storage could reach about 80% by the end of October under a base-case scenario, assuming a resumption of steady Hormuz transit by Jun. 1.
EU LNG imports rose slightly year over year in March, supported by cargoes already en route when the conflict began in late February, according to CERA data. However, that buffer has since faded, with April imports down roughly 6.9% from 2025 levels.
Looking ahead, Severe Weather Europe said Friday it is monitoring the potential development of a "super El Nino" pattern. One scenario that could develop would be an increase in the risk of dry conditions and drought across Central Europe this summer.