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Dovish Bank of Canada Restrains The Canadian Dollar, Says ING

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-- The Bank of Canada held rates steady at 2.25% on Wednesday, as expected, said ING.

USD/CAD briefly traded on the strong side after Wednesday's BoC announcement, although market pricing did not shift meaningfully, noted the bank.

Expectations remain for a 25bps rate hike at the October meeting, so more hawkish than ING's baseline call.

Wednesday's relatively dovish BoC endorses the bank's end Q2 call for 1.37 in USD/CAD. ING sees some downside risks to that forecast, given resilience in equity markets and oil prices remaining more elevated than longer.

However, for now, the bank is assuming there will be a period of elevated uncertainty around CUSMA trade deal renegotiations in June, leading to upward volatility in the pair.

ING expects better Canadian dollar (CAD) performance in H2 2026, when a new CUSMA deal could ultimately be agreed and the Federal Reserve should cut rates.

The bank predicts 1.34 by year-end in USD/CAD, with risks to the downside.

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