-- European natural gas futures were up on Monday after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again, before adding that it was "not optimistic" about negotiations with the US.
The front-month Dutch TTF contract was up 3.51% to 40.13 euros ($47.20) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures rose 3.83% to 100.83 British pence ($1.36) per therm.
Even after Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi declared the Hormuz "completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire," ships transiting the crucial waterway were attacked over the weekend.
In a statement on Saturday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said, "No vessel is to move from its anchorage in the Persian Gulf or the Sea of Oman," according to a report by BBC News.
In a Truth Social post on Friday, US President Donald Trump hailed Iran's decision to reopen the Strait, while noting that the blockade against Iran would continue until a peace deal is reached.
On Sunday, US forces intercepted an Iranian-flagged vessel attempting to enter port by violating the blockade. The ship was boarded by US Marines, and now remains in their custody, marking a major escalation in the conflict, according to US Central Command.
Meanwhile, the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran is set to take place in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Tuesday, with the two-week-long ceasefire set to expire at the same time.
The spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baghaei, has however, expressed pessimism regarding the country's dealings with the US. Speaking to the press on Monday, Baghaei said that Tehran was "certainty not optimistic" ahead of the negotiations in Pakistan.
The Strait of Hormuz now remains closed for the eighth week running, with just six vessels passing through over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor, a sharp decline from the typical daily average of 138 vessels.
According to SEB Research's Chief Commodities Analyst, Bjarne Schieldrop, the markets are betting on a quick resolution in the conflict, but he warned that each new day that the Strait remains closed "is bringing us closer to a potentially very painful point of shortages and much higher prices."
This comes as Europe begins reinjections at significantly depleted inventory levels of 30.20%, compared to 36.45% during the same period last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.
The bloc faces a serious challenge this reinjection season as stocks hit a four-year low, according to Argus Media, while noting that this tightened global supply makes it much worse.
Fortunately, weather forecasts are beginning to favor the region, with expectations of above-normal temperatures during the Summer, according to Severe Weather EU.