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S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite Scale Peaks as Trump Sets Stage for Iran Deal Over Weekend

-- US equity indexes jumped, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite making all-time highs, and crude oil futures sank on Friday amid mounting expectations of an Iran peace deal over the weekend.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.5% to 24,468.48, with the S&P 500 up 1.2% to 7,126.06, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher by 1.8% to 49,447.43.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures plunged 11% to $84.68, and Brent crude futures plummeted 8.8% to $90.69.

Bloomberg reported that President Donald Trump said Iran agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely and will not receive any frozen funds from the US. Axios reported Friday that the US could release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran turning over its stockpile of enriched uranium.

Trump said in a phone interview on Friday that a deal to end the war is mostly complete, according to the Bloomberg news report. Talks over a lasting agreement will "probably" be held this weekend, the president was cited as saying. The US-Iran ceasefire ends next week, implying an extension to the truce may not be required.

Earlier in the day, Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for the remainder of the ceasefire period.

"In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran," Iran's foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, said in a post on X. The 10-day truce between Israel and Lebanon came into force on Thursday.

Trump also said Friday the US naval blockade will continue until a deal with Iran is "100% complete," CNN reported.

"The single war variable that has mattered for markets is whether oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz," according to a Stifel Securities research note. "This is why today's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is 'open to shipping' for the remainder of the ceasefire is significant."

Most US Treasury yields dropped, with the 10-year down 6.5 basis points to 4.25% and the two-year slumped 7.8 basis points to 3.7% as falling crude oil prices damped inflation concerns. In precious metals, gold futures advanced 1.3% to $4,868.1 and silver futures jumped 3.2% to $81.24.

All sectors except energy and utilities soared intraday. Consumer discretionary, industrials, and technology led the gainers.

Airlines and cruise liners were the S&P 500's leaders. Royal Caribbean (RCL), United Airlines (UAL), and Carnival (CCL) led the outperformers, with gains of at least 7% each. Chevron (CVX), down 2.2%, was the Dow's worst performer.

In company news, shares of Netflix (NFLX) slid 9.7%, among the worst performers on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, after the company released Q2 guidance late Thursday below market consensus. The streaming company also said that its chairman and co-founder, Reed Hastings, plans to step down when his term ends in June.

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Oil & Energy

伍德麦肯兹表示,随着油价反弹和经济复苏时间表推迟,霍尔木兹海峡的干扰加剧。

伍德麦肯兹周二表示,霍尔木兹海峡的航运仍然受到严重限制,船舶通行量远低于正常的每日170艘,能源市场正对持续的中断做出反应。 伍德麦肯兹指出,尽管有停火信号,但该水道实际上仍然受到限制,安全通行的不确定性继续阻碍着航运活动。 尽管美国和伊朗正朝着重启谈判的方向迈进,但双方在条件上仍存在巨大分歧,这增加了海湾能源出口长期中断的风险。 伍德麦肯兹补充说,4月7日宣布的为期两周的停火以及随后在黎巴嫩进行的为期10天的暂停,曾一度提振了人们对紧张局势缓和的乐观情绪。 然而,两艘印度船只在周末试图通过海峡时遭到炮火袭击,被迫返航,凸显了持续存在的风险。 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队警告船只不要在波斯湾和阿曼海航行,称“接近霍尔木兹海峡将被视为与敌人合作”。 伍德麦肯兹公司的数据显示,停火后,船只通行量略有回升,每天约有20艘船只通过,但仍远低于2月份约170艘的水平。 这种有限的复苏势头已经逆转,周日记录到的船只通行量极少,表明石油、天然气和化工市场持续受到干扰。 报告显示,停火后油价最初下跌,布伦特原油价格从每桶110美元左右下跌约14%至95美元以下,之后一度跌至略高于86美元。 随后油价反弹,布伦特原油6月期货价格上涨约5%至每桶95美元左右,而欧洲天然气价格一度攀升至每兆瓦时61.5欧元(72.21美元),之后回落至40欧元。伍德麦肯兹公司表示,美国加强了对伊朗的封锁,扣押了一艘货船,并加大了对伊朗相关航运的压力。与此同时,双方在周末的言辞交锋也愈发激烈。 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队下属媒体塔斯尼姆通讯社指出,如果敌对行动再次爆发,包括曼德海峡在内的几个地点可能会“进入冲突区”。 伍德麦肯兹公司补充道,塔斯尼姆通讯社还提到了沙特阿美公司在延布和富查伊拉的资产和重要石油码头,这些码头是绕过霍尔木兹海峡的替代路线。 伍德麦肯兹公司高级副总裁艾伦·格尔德表示,和平协议或许能让一些油轮迅速恢复航行,但霍尔木兹海峡的正常交通全面恢复可能要到6月底才能实现。 伍德麦肯兹表示,和平协议达成后,液化天然气出口可能会出现初期激增,但全面恢复正常运营需要更长时间。 伍德麦肯兹的马西莫·迪·奥多阿尔多表示,卡塔尔南部液化天然气设施的重启可能需要三到四周,而北部设施的恢复则需要更长时间。 伍德麦肯兹指出,美国和伊朗之间日益紧张的局势使恢复时间表蒙上阴影,霍尔木兹海峡的长期中断威胁着全球能源市场更严重的失衡。 伍德麦肯兹的彼得·马丁表示,布伦特原油2026年的平均价格约为每桶85美元,并警告称,接近每桶90美元的价格可能将全球经济增长率推低至2%以下,甚至陷入衰退。

Research

研究快讯:EWBC:第一季度盈利超预期,营收增长优于预期

独立研究机构CFRA向提供了以下研究报告。CFRA分析师的观点总结如下:EWBC公布了强劲的2026财年第一季度业绩,运营每股收益为2.57美元,高于去年同期的2.08美元,超出市场预期0.10美元。第一季度营收为7.74亿美元,超出市场预期3%,同比增长12%,环比增长2%。该季度再次创下历史新高,银行贷款、存款和手续费收入均创历史新高,同时保持了良好的信贷质量。净利息收入环比增长2%,表现优异;净息差提升8个基点至3.49%,主要得益于存款成本下降21个基点至2.84%,足以抵消贷款收益率下降9个基点的影响。资产负债表增长依然强劲,贷款总额达到创纪录的580亿美元(环比增长2%,同比增长7%),存款总额达到690亿美元(环比增长3%,同比增长9%)。贷款增长实现了良好的多元化,涵盖商业和工业贷款、商业地产贷款以及住宅抵押贷款组合。手续费收入环比飙升13%,创历史新高,其中财富管理费收入增长超过一倍。在竞争激烈的市场环境下,该行的资金优化举措持续取得成效。

$EWBC
Asia

新西兰航空首席财务官将辞职

新西兰航空(ASX:AIZ,NZE:AIR)周三向新西兰证券交易所提交的文件显示,首席财务官理查德·汤姆森已辞职,将于8月28日生效。 文件还补充道,该航空公司已启动寻找新任首席财务官的程序。

$ASX:AIZ$NZE:AIR