-- The cost of repairing energy infrastructure damaged by the Middle East conflict could reach $58 billion, with broader knock-on effects likely to delay global energy projects, Rystad Energy strategists said in a note on Wednesday.
The total costs for oil and gas facilities alone are projected to reach $50 billion, with overall repair spending across energy, power, and industrial assets ranging from $34 billion to $58 billion. The midpoint estimate stands at $46 billion.
Rystad said the scale of destruction has expanded in recent weeks following continued military strikes across parts of the region, before easing after an Apr. 8 ceasefire between the US and Iran.
Though capital is available for reconstruction, Satwani said the main constraint is now access to equipment, contractors, and logistics capacity rather than financing.
"This is no longer just a story about damaged facilities in the Gulf. It is a stress test for the global energy supply chain," Karan Satwani, senior analyst, supply chain research at Rystad Energy, said. "Repair work does not create new capacity; it redirects existing capacity."
Rystad said that competition for engineering and construction resources is already intensifying as contractors remain committed to a wave of liquefied natural gas and offshore projects sanctioned since 2023, raising the risk of delays and inflationary pressure across global energy investment.
The consultancy said recovery timelines are diverging depending on the severity of damage and local execution capacity, with some lightly affected facilities restarting within weeks. However, heavily damaged assets requiring major equipment replacement could take years to restore.
Downstream refining and petrochemical plants account for the largest share of estimated costs, followed by upstream and midstream assets.
Meanwhile, at a country level, Iran faces the largest impact, with potential repair costs of up to $19 billion, driven by damage to gas processing facilities at South Pars, petrochemical complexes, and refining and export infrastructure.
Rystad said Qatar's damage profile is more concentrated but technically complex, centered on Ras Laffan Industrial City, where liquefied natural gas facilities and gas-to-liquids assets have been affected, potentially slowing ongoing expansion projects.
The consultancy said that engineering, procurement, and construction activity will account for the largest share of spending, noting that equipment bottlenecks and long-lead delivery times will determine the pace of recovery.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, reportedly said that more than 80 energy facilities have been attacked in the Middle East since the outbreak of the conflict on Feb. 28.