-- US natural gas exports are set to surge through 2027 as new liquefied natural gas projects come online and global demand strengthens amid supply disruptions, Energy Information Administration strategists said in a note on Thursday.
The EIA in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projected that net US natural gas exports will climb 18% to 18.7 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, before rising another 10% to 20.5 Bcf/d next year.
The agency said the gains are driven by expanding LNG capacity and steady growth in pipeline shipments to Mexico.
LNG exports alone are forecast to increase by 1.9 Bcf/d to average 17 Bcf/d in 2026, followed by a further 9% rise in 2027. Pipeline exports are expected to grow more modestly, advancing 4% in 2026 and 2% in 2027.
The expansion comes as global demand for US cargoes strengthens amid supply disruptions centered on the Strait of Hormuz, where tensions have curtailed flows from key producers. Disruptions, largely affecting Qatar, have sidelined over 10 Bcf/d of supply, about one-fifth of global LNG output.
Qatar's export capacity has also been hit by infrastructure damage. EIA strategists said a March attack on the Ras Laffan facility knocked out two liquefaction trains, reducing capacity by about 17%.
State energy firm QatarEnergy said repairs could take years, prolonging tightness in global markets, the analysts said.
However, against that backdrop, US export terminals are expected to operate at higher utilization rates even after running near capacity in 2025. Current peak export capacity stands at 18.3 Bcf/d, but a slate of new projects will push that ceiling higher.
Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Golden Pass LNG are expected to begin ramping up in 2026, while Port Arthur LNG, Rio Grande LNG and additional Golden Pass capacity are slated to start exports by 2027.
Existing facilities, including Plaquemines LNG and Elba Island LNG, have also received approvals to expand output.
Europe has emerged as the dominant destination for US LNG. The EIA said shipments to the region reached a record 10.3 Bcf/d in 2025, accounting for 68% of total exports, as buyers continue to diversify away from Russian pipeline gas. Italy and Poland posted the fastest growth.
Exports to Asia, in contrast, declined with shipments falling to 2.5 Bcf/d in 2025. US LNG exports to China dropped to zero as traders diverted cargoes amid ongoing trade tensions.
Elsewhere, exports to Egypt quadrupled, helping drive broader growth in shipments to non-European markets.
Pipeline exports are expected to remain a key pillar of growth, rising to 10 cf/d by 2027. The EIA said demand from Mexico is driving the increase, supported by expanding gas-fired power generation and new LNG export terminals that will rely on US supply.
Meanwhile, US LNG imports are expected to remain minimal, averaging about 0.1 Bcf/d through 2027, primarily serving seasonal demand in New England.
Pipeline imports from Canada are forecast to decline to 8 Bcf/d by 2027, as rising domestic production in the US Appalachia region and new Canadian LNG export capacity reduce cross-border flows.