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European Stocks Tracking Higher in Friday Trading Amid US-Iran Ceasefire Talks; German Inflation Rises in March

-- The European stock markets were moving modestly higher Friday amid reports that US and Iran ceasefire negotiators will meet in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Saturday.

The Stoxx Europe was up 0.5%, Germany's DAX was rising 0.2%, the FTSE 100 was increasing 0.1%, France's CAC was gaining 0.3%, and the Swiss Market Index was moving 0.3% higher.

Mining stocks were tracking higher as Antofagasta and Fresnillo were rising 3.4% and 2.1% respectively in London, while Heidelberg Materials gained 3.2% in Frankfurt. ArcelorMittal was up 2.8% in Paris, and Boliden rose 2.1% in Stockholm.

The inflation rate in Germany, as measured by the annual change in the consumer price index, surged in March to 2.7% from 1.9% in February, according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). It's the highest rate since January 2024 when the CPI was 2.9%.

"The significant increase in the prices of energy products is driving up inflation," Destatis President Ruth Brand said in a statement. "In particular, motor fuel and heating oil prices have risen sharply for consumers since the start of the Iran war."

And in corporate news, Switzerland's criminal court said Friday it has discontinued a proceeding against UBS in connection with alleged money laundering in a case involving Mozambican state-owned companies.

The case stemmed from alleged criminal behavior by Credit Suisse, which UBS took over following its 2023 collapse.

The court cited "procedural obstacles" for abandoning the case, "because Credit Suisse lost [its status] as a criminal legal entity through the merger with UBS," according to a translation of the official statement.

"We welcome the court's recognition that UBS cannot be held liable in this matter, as such liability cannot be transferred to a legal successor through a merger," a UBS spokesperson toldin an emailed statement.

Shares of the Swiss bank were moving 1% higher in Zurich.

TotalEnergies said Friday the SATORP refinery in Saudi Arabia was impacted by the recent Middle East conflict, damaging a processing train.

Although there were no casualties, the units were shut down as a safety precaution, the company said. SATORP is jointly owned by TotalEnergies and Saudi state oil giant Aramco.

Shares of the French oil and gas company were off 1% in Paris.

GSK has withdrawn its application for a drug supported by President Donald Trump as a potential treatment for autism symptoms, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, citing a regulatory filing.

The British drugmaker asked the US Food and Drug Administration to pull out its application for the drug leucovorin calcium as it does not market the medicine, months after submitting it at the request of health officials.

Shares of the British pharmaceutical company were increasing 0.7% in London.

HSBC and Anchorpoint Financial, a Standard Chartered joint venture, have been granted stablecoin issuer licenses by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the regulator said Friday.

The licenses have been granted under the stablecoins ordinance to issue stablecoins in Hong Kong, according to the regulator. The licensees plan to complete the required documentation and launch business in the coming few months, the Monetary Authority said.

Shares of the British bank were up 0.5% in London.

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Oil & Energy

伍德麦肯兹表示,随着油价反弹和经济复苏时间表推迟,霍尔木兹海峡的干扰加剧。

伍德麦肯兹周二表示,霍尔木兹海峡的航运仍然受到严重限制,船舶通行量远低于正常的每日170艘,能源市场正对持续的中断做出反应。 伍德麦肯兹指出,尽管有停火信号,但该水道实际上仍然受到限制,安全通行的不确定性继续阻碍着航运活动。 尽管美国和伊朗正朝着重启谈判的方向迈进,但双方在条件上仍存在巨大分歧,这增加了海湾能源出口长期中断的风险。 伍德麦肯兹补充说,4月7日宣布的为期两周的停火以及随后在黎巴嫩进行的为期10天的暂停,曾一度提振了人们对紧张局势缓和的乐观情绪。 然而,两艘印度船只在周末试图通过海峡时遭到炮火袭击,被迫返航,凸显了持续存在的风险。 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队警告船只不要在波斯湾和阿曼海航行,称“接近霍尔木兹海峡将被视为与敌人合作”。 伍德麦肯兹公司的数据显示,停火后,船只通行量略有回升,每天约有20艘船只通过,但仍远低于2月份约170艘的水平。 这种有限的复苏势头已经逆转,周日记录到的船只通行量极少,表明石油、天然气和化工市场持续受到干扰。 报告显示,停火后油价最初下跌,布伦特原油价格从每桶110美元左右下跌约14%至95美元以下,之后一度跌至略高于86美元。 随后油价反弹,布伦特原油6月期货价格上涨约5%至每桶95美元左右,而欧洲天然气价格一度攀升至每兆瓦时61.5欧元(72.21美元),之后回落至40欧元。伍德麦肯兹公司表示,美国加强了对伊朗的封锁,扣押了一艘货船,并加大了对伊朗相关航运的压力。与此同时,双方在周末的言辞交锋也愈发激烈。 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队下属媒体塔斯尼姆通讯社指出,如果敌对行动再次爆发,包括曼德海峡在内的几个地点可能会“进入冲突区”。 伍德麦肯兹公司补充道,塔斯尼姆通讯社还提到了沙特阿美公司在延布和富查伊拉的资产和重要石油码头,这些码头是绕过霍尔木兹海峡的替代路线。 伍德麦肯兹公司高级副总裁艾伦·格尔德表示,和平协议或许能让一些油轮迅速恢复航行,但霍尔木兹海峡的正常交通全面恢复可能要到6月底才能实现。 伍德麦肯兹表示,和平协议达成后,液化天然气出口可能会出现初期激增,但全面恢复正常运营需要更长时间。 伍德麦肯兹的马西莫·迪·奥多阿尔多表示,卡塔尔南部液化天然气设施的重启可能需要三到四周,而北部设施的恢复则需要更长时间。 伍德麦肯兹指出,美国和伊朗之间日益紧张的局势使恢复时间表蒙上阴影,霍尔木兹海峡的长期中断威胁着全球能源市场更严重的失衡。 伍德麦肯兹的彼得·马丁表示,布伦特原油2026年的平均价格约为每桶85美元,并警告称,接近每桶90美元的价格可能将全球经济增长率推低至2%以下,甚至陷入衰退。

Research

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Asia

新西兰航空首席财务官将辞职

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$ASX:AIZ$NZE:AIR