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FINWIRES

Stocks Mostly Down Pre-Bell as US-Iran Talks Loom; Consumer Inflation Report on Deck

-- The main US stock measures were mostly tracking in the red before the open Friday as traders await talks between US and Iranian officials and a key report on consumer inflation.

The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.1% each in premarket activity, while the Nasdaq was up less than 0.1%. The indexes finished the previous trading session higher, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recording their seventh straight day of gains.

Officials from the US and Iran are expected to meet on Saturday in Pakistan, which helped broker the truce between the two countries earlier in the week.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country would negotiate with Lebanon on disarming Hezbollah, CNN reported Thursday. Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, previously called Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon a violation of the ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran.

In a social media post on Thursday, President Donald Trump said Iran was "doing a very poor job" of allowing oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. "That is not the agreement we have," Trump said.

Iranian state media reported that transit through the strait was halted following Israeli strikes on Lebanon.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil nudged 0.2% higher to $98.02 a barrel before the opening bell, while Brent ticked up 0.1% to $95.97. "With a full reopening of the strait unlikely in the near term, oil prices are expected to remain supported, as disruptions linked to reduced output and refinery shutdowns will take time to unwind," ING Bank said in a note on Thursday.

The consumer price index report for March is scheduled for an 8:30 am ET release. Official data are expected to show that consumer inflation accelerated 0.9% and 3.4% on sequential and annual bases last month, according to a Bloomberg-compiled consensus.

Treasury yields were down in premarket action, with the two-year rate retreating 0.2 basis points to 3.78% and the 10-year rate off 0.4 basis points to 4.29%.

Government data on Thursday showed that inflation accelerated sequentially in February as real consumer spending edged higher, with analysts expecting price pressures to intensify due to the spillover effects of the Middle East conflict.

The US economy expanded at a slower rate in the fourth quarter than previously projected, as consumer spending growth decelerated, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' third estimate.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting showed earlier in the week that participants emphasized the need for the central bank to be "nimble" in adjusting monetary policy amid heightened macro risks.

Friday's economic calendar also has the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment report for April at 10 am, while the weekly Baker Hughes oil-and-gas rig count is out at 1 pm.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's (TSM) US-listed shares gained 2% pre-bell after the chipmaker disclosed a year-over-year increase in its first-quarter revenue. Snowflake (SNOW) rebounded 0.2% following a 12% drop at the close of the previous trading session.

Gold declined 0.8% to $4,779 per troy ounce, while bitcoin slipped 0.2% to $71,920.

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Oil & Energy

伍德麦肯兹表示,随着油价反弹和经济复苏时间表推迟,霍尔木兹海峡的干扰加剧。

伍德麦肯兹周二表示,霍尔木兹海峡的航运仍然受到严重限制,船舶通行量远低于正常的每日170艘,能源市场正对持续的中断做出反应。 伍德麦肯兹指出,尽管有停火信号,但该水道实际上仍然受到限制,安全通行的不确定性继续阻碍着航运活动。 尽管美国和伊朗正朝着重启谈判的方向迈进,但双方在条件上仍存在巨大分歧,这增加了海湾能源出口长期中断的风险。 伍德麦肯兹补充说,4月7日宣布的为期两周的停火以及随后在黎巴嫩进行的为期10天的暂停,曾一度提振了人们对紧张局势缓和的乐观情绪。 然而,两艘印度船只在周末试图通过海峡时遭到炮火袭击,被迫返航,凸显了持续存在的风险。 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队警告船只不要在波斯湾和阿曼海航行,称“接近霍尔木兹海峡将被视为与敌人合作”。 伍德麦肯兹公司的数据显示,停火后,船只通行量略有回升,每天约有20艘船只通过,但仍远低于2月份约170艘的水平。 这种有限的复苏势头已经逆转,周日记录到的船只通行量极少,表明石油、天然气和化工市场持续受到干扰。 报告显示,停火后油价最初下跌,布伦特原油价格从每桶110美元左右下跌约14%至95美元以下,之后一度跌至略高于86美元。 随后油价反弹,布伦特原油6月期货价格上涨约5%至每桶95美元左右,而欧洲天然气价格一度攀升至每兆瓦时61.5欧元(72.21美元),之后回落至40欧元。伍德麦肯兹公司表示,美国加强了对伊朗的封锁,扣押了一艘货船,并加大了对伊朗相关航运的压力。与此同时,双方在周末的言辞交锋也愈发激烈。 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队下属媒体塔斯尼姆通讯社指出,如果敌对行动再次爆发,包括曼德海峡在内的几个地点可能会“进入冲突区”。 伍德麦肯兹公司补充道,塔斯尼姆通讯社还提到了沙特阿美公司在延布和富查伊拉的资产和重要石油码头,这些码头是绕过霍尔木兹海峡的替代路线。 伍德麦肯兹公司高级副总裁艾伦·格尔德表示,和平协议或许能让一些油轮迅速恢复航行,但霍尔木兹海峡的正常交通全面恢复可能要到6月底才能实现。 伍德麦肯兹表示,和平协议达成后,液化天然气出口可能会出现初期激增,但全面恢复正常运营需要更长时间。 伍德麦肯兹的马西莫·迪·奥多阿尔多表示,卡塔尔南部液化天然气设施的重启可能需要三到四周,而北部设施的恢复则需要更长时间。 伍德麦肯兹指出,美国和伊朗之间日益紧张的局势使恢复时间表蒙上阴影,霍尔木兹海峡的长期中断威胁着全球能源市场更严重的失衡。 伍德麦肯兹的彼得·马丁表示,布伦特原油2026年的平均价格约为每桶85美元,并警告称,接近每桶90美元的价格可能将全球经济增长率推低至2%以下,甚至陷入衰退。

Research

研究快讯:EWBC:第一季度盈利超预期,营收增长优于预期

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$EWBC
Asia

新西兰航空首席财务官将辞职

新西兰航空(ASX:AIZ,NZE:AIR)周三向新西兰证券交易所提交的文件显示,首席财务官理查德·汤姆森已辞职,将于8月28日生效。 文件还补充道,该航空公司已启动寻找新任首席财务官的程序。

$ASX:AIZ$NZE:AIR