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US Equity Indexes Extend Iran Ceasefire Gains as Truce Likely to Hold Until Talks in Pakistan

-- US equity indexes rose on Thursday while crude oil futures pared gains amid expectations that a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire deal with Iran will hold until further negotiations in Islamabad to end the war.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8% to 22,822.42, with the S&P 500 up 0.6% to 6,824.66 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher by 0.6% to 48,185.80, extending gains following a strong rally on Wednesday.

The UK's ITV network reported that Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh said the Strait of Hormuz is open. Any civilian vessel can pass with guidance from the Iranian authorities, Khatibzadeh told ITV. "Anybody who communicates with the Iranian authority has permission to pass."

Eight ships crossed Hormuz on Thursday, below the usual 135 daily transits, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The two-week truce appears to be holding up as fewer strikes were reported across the Middle East on Thursday, CNN reported. Israel's attacks on Lebanon killed more than 250 people while injuring hundreds on Wednesday, according to Reuters.

Further, Netanyahu's plan for talks with Lebanon to disarm the militant group reportedly fighting as Iran's proxy addressed concerns raised by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Tel Aviv's strikes on Lebanon violated the truce deal and, more importantly, would render the upcoming US-Iran peace negotiations in Islamabad meaningless, Reuters cited Pezeshkian as saying.

Netanyahu said Israel is planning direct negotiations with Lebanon to establish peaceful relations, but added there is no ceasefire while talks are being pursued, CNN reported.

Vice President JD Vance will lead US negotiators in talks with Iran in Islamabad on Saturday, according to media reports. Trump reportedly told NBC News that he was "very optimistic" about reaching a peace deal with Iran, but warned that "if they don't make a deal, it's going to be very painful."

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were up 4.7% to $98.88, after surging more than 7% higher earlier in the session. Brent crude futures rose 2.4% to $97.01, after climbing almost 5% intraday.

Most US Treasury yields fell, with the two-year declining 1.5 basis points to 3.78%. The 10-year was little changed at 4.28%.

In economic news, the personal consumption expenditures price index rose by 0.4%, and as expected, the year-over-year rate remained at 2.8%. The price index increased by 0.3% month-over-month in January.

The core PCE price index increased by 0.4%, as expected, and the same as in January. The year-over-year rate dropped to 3% from 3.1% in the previous month.

US economic growth, measured by gross domestic product, was revised lower to a 0.5% increase in Q4 from a 0.7% gain in the second estimate, compared with estimates for no revision in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

US initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 in the week ended April 4 from an upwardly revised 203,000 in the previous week, compared with expectations for 210,000 in a Bloomberg-compiled poll.

In precious metals, gold futures rose 0.4% to $4,794.4 and silver futures climbed 0.5% to $75.79.

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Oil & Energy

伍德麦肯兹表示,随着油价反弹和经济复苏时间表推迟,霍尔木兹海峡的干扰加剧。

伍德麦肯兹周二表示,霍尔木兹海峡的航运仍然受到严重限制,船舶通行量远低于正常的每日170艘,能源市场正对持续的中断做出反应。 伍德麦肯兹指出,尽管有停火信号,但该水道实际上仍然受到限制,安全通行的不确定性继续阻碍着航运活动。 尽管美国和伊朗正朝着重启谈判的方向迈进,但双方在条件上仍存在巨大分歧,这增加了海湾能源出口长期中断的风险。 伍德麦肯兹补充说,4月7日宣布的为期两周的停火以及随后在黎巴嫩进行的为期10天的暂停,曾一度提振了人们对紧张局势缓和的乐观情绪。 然而,两艘印度船只在周末试图通过海峡时遭到炮火袭击,被迫返航,凸显了持续存在的风险。 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队警告船只不要在波斯湾和阿曼海航行,称“接近霍尔木兹海峡将被视为与敌人合作”。 伍德麦肯兹公司的数据显示,停火后,船只通行量略有回升,每天约有20艘船只通过,但仍远低于2月份约170艘的水平。 这种有限的复苏势头已经逆转,周日记录到的船只通行量极少,表明石油、天然气和化工市场持续受到干扰。 报告显示,停火后油价最初下跌,布伦特原油价格从每桶110美元左右下跌约14%至95美元以下,之后一度跌至略高于86美元。 随后油价反弹,布伦特原油6月期货价格上涨约5%至每桶95美元左右,而欧洲天然气价格一度攀升至每兆瓦时61.5欧元(72.21美元),之后回落至40欧元。伍德麦肯兹公司表示,美国加强了对伊朗的封锁,扣押了一艘货船,并加大了对伊朗相关航运的压力。与此同时,双方在周末的言辞交锋也愈发激烈。 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队下属媒体塔斯尼姆通讯社指出,如果敌对行动再次爆发,包括曼德海峡在内的几个地点可能会“进入冲突区”。 伍德麦肯兹公司补充道,塔斯尼姆通讯社还提到了沙特阿美公司在延布和富查伊拉的资产和重要石油码头,这些码头是绕过霍尔木兹海峡的替代路线。 伍德麦肯兹公司高级副总裁艾伦·格尔德表示,和平协议或许能让一些油轮迅速恢复航行,但霍尔木兹海峡的正常交通全面恢复可能要到6月底才能实现。 伍德麦肯兹表示,和平协议达成后,液化天然气出口可能会出现初期激增,但全面恢复正常运营需要更长时间。 伍德麦肯兹的马西莫·迪·奥多阿尔多表示,卡塔尔南部液化天然气设施的重启可能需要三到四周,而北部设施的恢复则需要更长时间。 伍德麦肯兹指出,美国和伊朗之间日益紧张的局势使恢复时间表蒙上阴影,霍尔木兹海峡的长期中断威胁着全球能源市场更严重的失衡。 伍德麦肯兹的彼得·马丁表示,布伦特原油2026年的平均价格约为每桶85美元,并警告称,接近每桶90美元的价格可能将全球经济增长率推低至2%以下,甚至陷入衰退。

Research

研究快讯:EWBC:第一季度盈利超预期,营收增长优于预期

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$EWBC
Asia

新西兰航空首席财务官将辞职

新西兰航空(ASX:AIZ,NZE:AIR)周三向新西兰证券交易所提交的文件显示,首席财务官理查德·汤姆森已辞职,将于8月28日生效。 文件还补充道,该航空公司已启动寻找新任首席财务官的程序。

$ASX:AIZ$NZE:AIR