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WTI to Hold $75 to $80/bbl Through 2027 Before Markets Turn Oversupplied, TPH Energy Says

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TPH Energy raised its 2027 oil outlook and maintained its long-term West Texas Intermediate forecast at $80 per barrel, the firm said Monday.

TPH expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen by early June, though the conflict will still remove about 1.7 billion barrels from global markets after accounting for temporary demand destruction.

The firm said Middle East producers may need extended time to restore output to prewar levels, keeping global working oil inventories below pre-conflict levels until the first half of 2028.

Tighter inventories will support WTI prices at $75 to $80 per barrel through 2027 as the market encourages moderate production growth from the US and Argentina.

TPH expects the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to unwind the remaining voluntary production cuts by September 2026, while the UAE reaches record output levels.

The firm forecasts oversupplied oil markets in the second half of 2028 and through 2029, which could pull WTI prices lower toward a $65 to $70 per barrel range.

Steady demand growth and slowing production outside OPEC and the UAE later this decade could tighten global oil supplies as mature US shale fields lose momentum, supporting TPH's mid-cycle WTI forecast of $80 per barrel.

TPH now expects US producers to add about 50 oil-directed rigs between February 2026 and early 2027, driving shale oil growth of about 120,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 280,000 b/d in 2027.

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