-- Wingstop's (WING) fiscal first-quarter same-store sales are expected to miss Wall Street's estimates amid a tough macro environment, prompting the company to lower its full-year outlook for the metric, RBC Capital Markets said in a note e-mailed Monday.
The brokerage projects the restaurant chain's first-quarter same-store sales to drop 6.8%, while the Street is looking for a 5.2% decline, according to RBC.
"We model (a first-quarter same-store sales) miss as macro pressures continued to weigh on (Wingstop's) core consumer and weather was likely (more than a 100-basis-point) headwind in the quarter," RBC analyst Logan Reich said in a note to clients.
The company is scheduled to report results April 29.
"Given elevated macro uncertainty and (Wingstop) over-indexing to lower-income consumers, we anticipate a modest guide down from the (company's) flat (to low-single-digit full-year same-store sales) outlook," Reich said. "However, given best-in-class franchisee returns on capital, we don't believe there's elevated potential for a unit growth guide down, despite recently challenged (same-store sales) growth.
RBC reduced its 2026 and 2027 same-store sales projections for Wingstop.
"(Full-year) comps were always expected to be back-half weighted, but a potential (high-single-digit) decline in (the first quarter) on an easier compare implies material contribution from the loyalty program launch at the end of (the second quarter) and faster prep times translating to faster all-in delivery speed are required," the analyst said.
The brokerage lowered its price target on the Wingstop stock to $275 from $340, with an outperform rating.
The company's shares were down 1.2% in Monday afternoon trade, bringing its year-to-date losses to 19%.
Wingstop's customer base leans heavily toward lower-income demographics that are more sensitive to increases in gas prices, making the brand more vulnerable to macroeconomic shifts, according to the note.
Energy prices have surged following the US-Israel war with Iran that started at the end of February amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important chokepoint for crude flows.
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