-- 韦德布什证券公司(Wedbush Securities)周一上调了2026年北美票房预期,理由是第一季度票房强劲增长以及夏季档影片上映。 该券商预计,今年北美票房收入将同比增长13%,达到98亿美元,高于此前预测的10%。第一季度票房收入同比增长25%,达到18亿美元。 上周,电影行业贸易展CinemaCon在拉斯维加斯举行。韦德布什证券表示,展会期间各大电影公司都推出了强劲的影片阵容,并重点关注延长影院窗口期。 韦德布什证券的分析师,包括艾丽西亚·里斯(Alicia Reese),表示:“所有电影公司今年都比去年更有信心。” 华纳兄弟探索影业(WBD)与派拉蒙天空之舞影业(PSKY)的交易成为本次活动的焦点。据里斯透露,派拉蒙首席执行官大卫·埃里森承诺,交易完成后将提供45天的独家院线放映窗口期,并将影片年产量提升至30部。 路透社上周报道称,影院运营商一直要求至少45天的放映窗口期。韦德布什证券的报告指出,延长影片在影院的放映时间有助于提升院线和流媒体平台的经济效益。 里斯表示,康卡斯特(CMCSA)旗下的环球影业计划在2027年将独家院线放映窗口期延长至45天,而目前的窗口期为17天,预计将于2026年延长至35天。 里斯还表示,夏季档期,尤其是第三季度的影片,“目前形势一片大好”。 上周,B. Riley Securities 将 2026 年票房预期从 94 亿美元上调至 95.5 亿美元,原因是第一季度业绩好于预期。 Wedbush 将 2027 年票房增长预期从 4% 上调至 5%,达到 102 亿美元。 然而,Reese 表示,如果派拉蒙和华纳兄弟合并后的公司削减院线发行量,2027 年的票房预期可能会面临下行风险。 Reese 还表示:“即便如此,我们目前的预测并不认为合并后的公司能够达到其设定的 30 部影片的目标。”
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